Poll: Reform UK falls behind Labour in the Holyrood election race
The new poll says the SNP is on course to win the Holyrood election - but will fall short of the majority John Swinney wants.
Reform UK has fallen behind Scottish Labour and the Scottish Greens in the polls - but the SNP is still on track to remain the largest party in Scotland.
A new Ipsos poll for STV predicts the nationalists will win 60 seats at the election on May 7, putting them comfortably ahead of all the other parties.
It would still be short of the 65-seat majority First Minister John Swinney has his eyes set on.
However, the poll then suggests Scottish Labour would come second on 20 seats followed by the Scottish Greens on 16 seats. It then predicts Nigel Farage’s party would only return 13 seats, followed by the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Lib Dems on 10 each.
This is the first poll for a few months that has not predicted Reform UK will become the official opposition in Holyrood.
The polling shows the SNP will win 36 per cent of the constituency vote, which is a 16-point lead over Labour on 20 per cent, and 20 points ahead of Reform UK on 16 per cent.
It also puts the Lib Dems on 10 per cent, the Conservatives on 9 per cent, and the Greens on 7 per cent.
On the regional list, the poll suggests the SNP will win 26 per cent of the vote, followed by Labour and the Greens on 16 per cent, Reform UK on 14 per cent, the Conservatives on 11 per cent and the Lib Dems on 10 per cent.
Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos Scotland, said: “The SNP have most reason to be pleased with these new results, which show them maintaining their polling lead two months out from the Holyrood election.
“While Scottish Labour’s constituency vote share has increased slightly compared with three months ago, Labour also look more vulnerable than either the SNP or Reform UK to their voters switching to support other parties.
“With four in 10 voters saying they may change their minds, much may still shift once the parties begin their election campaigns later this month.”
The SNP say the polling shows the public are continuing to put their faith in Mr Swinney’s leadership.
Angus Robertson MSP, the party’s campaign director, said: “Momentum is firmly with the SNP.
“While the Westminster parties tear themselves apart over scandal and infighting, the SNP is on Scotland’s side, delivering on the priorities of the people of Scotland.
“Our NHS is starting to turn a corner under our plan, and the SNP Scottish Government offers the best cost-of-living support package available on these islands - that’s the difference John Swinney’s focused leadership brings.
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“Broken, Brexit Britain is in terminal decline and amid the chaos coming from Westminster, Scottish voters are increasingly concluding we need a fresh start with independence - that is on the ballot paper in May and only a vote for the SNP can secure that future.”
The Scottish Greens are also celebrating the outcome of this most recent poll, which suggests they will double their number of MSPs in May.
Co-leader Gillian Mackay said: “This shows the huge and growing demand for bold action to tackle the cost-of-living crisis and protect our planet.
“Every vote for the Scottish Greens is a vote for a fairer and better Scotland and against the hateful policies of parties like Reform.
“People are sick of Westminster politics and a Labour government that has punished disabled people and migrants with cruel policies and cuts while arming Israel’s genocide against Palestinians.
“Scotland deserves so much better, and more and more people are seeing that the Greens are the only party that is offering it.
“Green MSPs have already delivered free bus travel for young people, free school meals for thousands more children and an end to peak rail fares. With twice as many MSPs we could do even more.”
Dame Jackie Baillie MSP, Scottish Labour’s deputy leader, says the poll proves that her party is the only one that can beat the SNP. This was the message from the party at its campaign conference last week.
She said: “Scotland is being let down by a tired SNP government that can no longer get the basics right.
“It’s clear that only Scottish Labour can beat the SNP and fix their mess - restoring our NHS, improving our schools, tackling the housing emergency and making communities safer.
“Reform has no answers to the challenges we face and no chance of beating the SNP.
“The choice Scotland faces in just over nine weeks is more of the same with John Swinney and the SNP or a better future with Anas Sarwar and Scottish Labour.”
The new poll also found that healthcare and the NHS remains the top concern for Scottish voters, followed by the cost-of-living, the economy, immigration and Scottish independence.
Immigration, a key issue for Reform UK, is down five points on where it was ranked by voters in December.
It also polled leadership satisfaction in both Holyrood and Westminster.
Mr Swinney remains the most popular Scottish leader, with a 35 per cent satisfaction rate and a 51 per cent dissatisfaction rate. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar received 24 per cent satisfaction and 53 per cent dissatisfaction, and Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay received 17 per cent satisfaction and 48 per cent dissatisfaction.
The dissatisfaction rate is much higher for the UK leaders. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer received a 73 per cent satisfaction rating, followed by leader of the opposition Kemi Badenoch on 56 per cent and Mr Farage on 62 per cent.
The Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse Survey was conducted amongst 1,096 adults between February 19 and February 25.
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