If Labour can't beat the Greens in Gorton and Denton, it has no chance against the SNP in Scotland

Although the Prime Minister’s coat is on a shoogly peg, Sir Keir Starmer will probably stay in a job if Labour loses.

This is something that even those who want him out of office accept.

Sir Keir’s position was made more secure when his Cabinet rallied round him when Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar called for his head.

And no one would likely want to take over after a bad by-election loss and more elections - expected to go badly - looming in May.

Gorton and Denton is a litmus test to see whether Labour can win three-way contests.

Recent polling put both Labour and the Greens on 28 per cent, with Reform on 27 per cent.

Unlike the Runcorn by-election, which Labour lost to Reform by six votes last year, the Prime Minister has visited the constituency to campaign.

Read more: Scottish Parliament maintenance costs increase by 50% in five years

This is at least an attempt to suggest that Sir Keir is confident his party will win.

If Labour is declared the winner on Friday morning, no matter how slim the margin, the party will use this to show that it is best placed to see off the threat of Reform.

Labour are not in any three-way contests with the Greens and Reform in Scotland - but there will be dozens of constituencies where they are battling both the SNP and Nigel Farage’s party.

A win in Gorton and Denton would give Scottish Labour some optimism.

The party is dwindling in the polls - with a poll earlier this week saying it may only win 15 MSPs in May.

If Labour can see off opposition on the left and the right in Greater Manchester, some will start to think it can do the same in Scotland come May.

They will look back to June’s Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election where Labour defied the odds and managed to beat both the SNP and Reform.

On the flip side, it will be a disaster for Labour if it finishes behind the Greens - either in second or third.

It would suggest that in historically safe seats (Labour won 51 per cent of the vote in 2024), the UK Government is so unpopular that the public is backing other parties to take on Reform.

Get our revamped Steamie newsletter

The already bullish SNP will be licking their lips at the prospect of winning a majority in a few months’ time.

If Reform wins, it confirms that the party has an extremely wide reach and that Mr Farage has a real chance of becoming the next Prime Minister.

This will help the SNP present itself as the only viable option to save Scotland from Reform.

If Labour cannot beat the Greens in Gorton and Denton, it will be unable to beat the SNP in many constituencies across Scotland’s central belt.