SNP in touching distance of Holyrood majority with Reform poised to edge pass Labour, new poll finds
The SNP is on course to match its performance in the 2021 election despite its vote share having dropped, according to a new poll.
The SNP is within touching distance of winning an elusive Holyrood majority at May’s election, a new poll has forecast.
The polling from More in Common has found that John Swinney’s party is forecast to secure 64 seats at the Scottish Parliament election, the same tally the party achieved at the 2021 poll - one short of an overall majority.
The research has suggested that Reform would nudge ahead of Labour, with 17 and 16 seats respectively - while the Scottish Conservatives could be left with just 12 MSPs, ahead of the Lib Dems on 11 and the Scottish Greens with nine representatives.
John Swinney has argued that a majority for his party at May’s election would leave the UK government no choice but to cave to demands for a re-run of the 2014 independence referendum, despite Prime Minister Keir Starmer insisting he will not grant a second vote on the constitution.
An SNP majority was achieved by Alex Salmond at the 2011 Holyrood election, with party chiefs arguing that a repeat of that success would follow a precedent of a referendum being held.
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There have been suggestions that the SNP could pursue a legal route based on the alleged precedent if the UK government continued to block a vote following an SNP majority in May.
The More in Common polling, which asked 1,035 Scots aged 16 and older from January 30 to February 10, revealed a fragmented electorate - with 30 of the 73 constituencies won with less than 35 per cent of the vote, while 16 seats would be won with a margin of 5 per cent or less.
According to the study, the SNP’s vote share at a constituency level is 33 per cent. Despite a 15-point drop since the 2021 election, Mr Swinney’s party still holds a 14-point lead over Labour - which has a vote share of 19 per cent, with Reform on 18 per cent.
On the regional list, where the SNP won two seats to top up their 62 constituency victories in 2021, the party has seen their vote share increase by 6 per cent since the last More in Common polling from February 3, on 33 per cent. Reform’s regional list vote share has declined by four points to 16 per cent, the same proportion as Labour.
The study suggest that the Scottish Tories would see their seats whittled down from the 31 they secured under Douglas Ross’ leadership in 2021 to just 12, with the poll suggesting the party would lose two of their three strongholds in the Scottish borders in Dumfriesshire and Galloway and West Dumfries.
SNP depute leader, Keith Brown, said: “This poll shows Scottish voters are putting their faith in John Swinney’s strong leadership which is firmly on Scotland’s side amid chaos from Westminster.
“As the Westminster parties tear themselves apart over scandals, John Swinney’s relentless focus has been on Scotland’s NHS, the cost of living crisis and offering people hope through a fresh start with independence.”
He added: “In stark contrast to the Labour Party, the last week saw the SNP delivering on the priorities of Scotland from opening our first GP walk-in centre to freezing rail fares - that's the difference John Swinney’s focussed leadership brings.
“This poll reflects a month that has left Scottish voters in no doubt that while the others act in their own self-interests, the SNP will always be on Scotland’s side – a fresh start with independence is on the ballot paper in May and only a vote for the SNP can secure that future.”
Scottish Labour deputy leader, Jackie Baillie, said: “Unlike the SNP, Scottish Labour won’t take any votes for granted. We have defied the polls before, and we are determined to do so again.
“This election is a straight choice between a tired John Swinney and a third decade of miserable government under the SNP; or a new direction with Scottish Labour and Anas Sarwar.”
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