Poll: Gap between SNP and Reform UK narrows, but nationalists on track to win in Scotland

New polling from More in Common suggests Nigel Farage’s party is now only 5 points behind the SNP in the regional list vote -something that could leave Reform UK and Scottish Labour tied on 19 seats each.

This has reduced from a 16-point gap in August as support for the SNP declines while Reform UK continues to garner popularity north of the Border.

On the constituency vote the SNP’s support has fallen by 13 points, but still retains a 16-point lead on 35 per cent.

Reform UK is in second place on 19 per cent, with Scottish Labour on 18 per cent (down 4 points on 2021).

The Conservatives are expected to receive 11 per cent (down 11 points), the Lib Dems on 10 per cent (up 3 points) and the Greens on 5 per cent (up 4 points).

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At the 2021 election the constituency vote was where most of the SNP seats were won - only two of the 64 SNP seats were regional list seats.

However the new polling suggests Reform UK is closing the gap on the regional list vote.

The SNP remains ahead on 25 per cent (down 15 points on 2021), but Reform UK is now on 20 per cent.

Scottish Labour is on 19 per cent (up 1 point), the Lib Dems on 13 per cent (up 13 points), the Conservatives on 12 per cent (down 12 points), and the Greens on 9 per cent (up 1 point).

Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice projects this will see the SNP finish on 59 seats, short of the 65-seat majority First Minister John Swinney has his sights set on.

He predicts both Reform UK and Scottish Labour will finish on 19 seats each, with the Lib Dems on 13, Conservatives on 11, and Greens on eight.

More in Common said: “The SNP’s fall in support has not cost the party its lead among pro-independence Scots - it still dominates with more than three in five pro-independence voters (61 per cent).

“Meanwhile, Reform UK has emerged as the frontrunner among Scottish voters who oppose independence, securing 31 per cent of the vote compared to Labour’s 23 per cent.

“The polling suggests that the independence debate could play a decisive role in handing victory to the SNP despite their decline in support, with the nationalist vote united behind the party while the anti-independence vote is split across four parties.”

This comes after The Scotsman spoke to Sir John about the prospects for the upcoming election.

He said UK politics is “now more fragmented than it has ever been” as support for the two main parties traditionally (the Conservatives and Labour) is “running low”.

Sir John said: “Where are we going so far as Holyrood? Labour support has just declined and has been going down consistently - that trajectory has also been reflected in Westminster polls.

“Scotland, meanwhile, has seen a rise in support for Reform. Reform is not as popular in Scotland as it is south of the border.

“That’s not very difficult to explain - the vast bulk of support for Reform is coming from England, from those voting leave in the 2016 referendum. There are fewer people in Scotland who voted for Brexit in 2016, but still Reform is the second most popular party.

“The SNP is now ahead but so long as you remember the SNP got 30 per cent in the Westminster election of 2024, you will also come to appreciate that the SNP is barely any more popular now than they were 18 months ago when of course the vast bulk of their Westminster MPs lost.

“The crucial difference is in 2024 Labour were at 35 per cent and therefore were ahead of the SNP but now the Labour Party are at 16 per cent, so a long way behind and so therefore, relatively speaking, the SNP is in a better position even though in absolute terms, they are no better off now than they were 18 months ago.”

Sir Curtice said the SNP is not as popular on the list vote because the Scottish Greens take up a “significant proportion” of the pro-independence vote - the party is now standing at its highest position since devolution.

He added: “Support for the SNP is running around the level of 2007, when they first got into power.

“Labour are even weaker than they were in 2021. The Conservatives are a lot weaker than they were in 2021.

“Support for the SNP is 40 points lower in the constituency vote than it was in 2021.

“A lot of people say how is it still possible for the SNP to stay ahead when you think that their record in government is not very good - the answer is not because the SNP is doing brilliantly, it’s just that the opponents are doing so badly.

“It is fragmented.”

Sir John said Scottish Labour is “more vulnerable” to Reform UK than they are in the rest of the UK because Labour’s success in 2024 was down to taking votes off of the Conservatives meaning Labour’s vote “contains a higher proportion of people who are more likely to vote Reform”.

He added: “Labour has lost some ground to the SNP as well.

“Not that Reform aren’t doing the Conservatives any damage north of the border, they certainly are. Around a quarter of the Conservative vote has gone to Reform across the UK as a whole.

“Virtually nobody who voted for the SNP 18 months ago has now switched to Reform, so again, to underline how it’s the SNP’s stability that’s been crucial, and notice therefore also how the potential pathway to the SNP winning the election has been paved by the rise of Reform.

“There is a direct parallel here. The path for Labour to get in power in 2024 was paved by Reform taking the votes off the Conservatives.

“These are some of the crucial but embarrassing truths that you will not hear from politicians.”