Reform UK opens up five-point lead over Labour in Holyrood race

A survey by YouGov found the SNP on 34 per cent of the constituency vote, down 14 points since the 2021 election, and 29 per cent of the list vote, down 11 points.

Mr Farage’s party has a 20 per cent share on both votes, while Labour is on just 15 per cent. If repeated in May, this would be Labour’s worst result in either a Westminster or Holyrood election in 116 years.

Seat projections by polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice suggested the SNP would secure 60 MSPs, with Reform on 23, Labour 15, the Conservatives 13, the Greens 10 and the Liberal Democrats eight.

The Conservatives, who are currently the second largest party at Holyrood, have seen their support roughly halve since 2021. The new poll puts them on just 10 per cent of the constituency vote and 11 per cent of the list vote.

Malcolm Offord, leader of Reform UK Scotland, said the survey “reflects the reality we are hearing on the doorsteps”, adding: “It is now a clear two-horse race between a clapped-out SNP government, and new direction for Scotland with Reform.”

UK Labour minister Liz Kendall insisted the Holyrood election should be a “referendum on the SNP’s record”.

Keith Brown, depute leader of the SNP, said: “The poll shows that momentum is with the SNP as the only party which offers trusted leadership and puts their priorities first while Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is distracted by a bitter civil war.”

In its analysis, YouGov said: “A mere third of Scots who backed Labour at the 2024 general election (32 per cent) currently intend to cast their constituency vote in May for the party, with 14 per cent now supporting Reform UK, 13 per cent now intending to vote SNP and 4-6 per cent backing each of the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens. A further one in five (21 per cent), though, are currently unsure who to vote for.

“The Conservatives have also suffered severe losses, with just 48 per cent of their 2024 voters intending to give the party their constituency vote at present, though these have mostly gone in one direction, with 27 per cent now backing Reform UK and no more than 3 per cent having switched to any other party. One in six (17 per cent) 2024 Tories are undecided.

“SNP voters have been more loyal over the past 18 months, with 73 per cent expecting to cast their constituency vote for the party, though this falls to 63 per cent for the regional vote, where 15 per cent instead intend to back the Greens. Around one in ten 2024 SNP voters (9-10 per cent) are undecided on either vote.”

The poll found just 25 per cent of Scots approve of the SNP government’s record to date, while 57 per cent disapprove. However, the UK government fared worse, with just 10 per cent approving and 75 per cent disapproving of Labour’s record in office.

First Minister John Swinney remains the most popular party leader in Scotland, with a third of Scots (33 per cent) having a favourable opinion of the SNP leader.

This compares to just 17 per cent who have a positive view of UK Labour leader Keir Starmer. Meanwhile, 18 per cent of Scots hold a favourable opinion of Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader.

YouGov polled 1,113 Scots aged 16 and over between January 8 and 14.