Scottish Tories to target Reform's 'weakness' to try and revive Holyrood fortunes

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is coming for their seats. The unionist vote, both Labour’s and the Conservatives’ share of votes in May’s elections is poised to be split by Reform’s surge.

For the last decade, the Scottish Conservatives have cashed in successfully on being the party to back to block any moves from the SNP to hold a re-run of the 2014 independence referendum.

But there are two reasons why that well-trodden strategy is unlikely to work in May’s Holyrood election.

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The first is that the prospect of John Swinney being able to follow through on any demands for a referendum are zilch. The second is that Reform’s new leader in Scotland, Malcolm Offord, has blown up how unionist parties can tackle calls for a new vote on independence.

In his pitch to “rational nationalists” last week, Mr Offord vowed that although no vote should take place for at least 10 years, if Scotland’s economy has improved, maybe a new vote should take place. Although some Scottish Tories will be delighted at this, the apparent weakness over the constitution by Reform is unlikely to cut through with voters in a significant way.

Instead, Tory insiders are focusing on a “key dividing line” with Reform in order to try and claw back support - with a focus on cutting the Scottish Government’s spiralising bill for social security. The Tories will today launch a campaign to save Scotland’s pubs - a strategy that will likely help their cause with core Conservative voters.

READ MORE: Reform UK wants a real Holyrood policy platform - but risk cementing pie in the sky reputation

One senior Conservative source said Reform has a “key weakness” on its insistence that big, and uncosted, income tax cuts can be promised without a need to significantly cut the social security bill - which could reach £10 billion by 2030.

Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay told The Scotsman last week he and former leader Ruth Davidson are “on the same page” in focusing on the economy and businesses, after Baroness Davidson co-launched a new “political movement” for liberal Conservative voters.

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While attacking Reform on benefits has the potential to strike a chord with many now-former Tory voters, Mr Findlay could perhaps examine what made Baroness Davidson’s Scottish Conservatives a real force in Scottish politics and try appealing to those liberal Tories that voted blue in considerable numbers.