Hamilton by-election results: 'Game on' for Labour to snatch Holyrood power from SNP
Next year’s Holyrood election is poised to be the closest battle seen in a generation.
It is difficult to disagree with Anas Sarwar that it is now “game on” for Scottish Labour’s hopes of snatching power away from the SNP next year.
Scottish Labour has revived its dwindling hopes of challenging John Swinney for power in 11 months time by defying the odds with a victory that will send shockwaves through Scottish politics.
It shouldn’t have been a huge shock - Labour thumped the SNP by almost 10,000 votes in the Westminster seat of Hamilton and Clyde Valley less than a year ago. But unbelievably, you could get odds of 11/1 on Davy Russell to pull off a victory for Labour as polls opened on Thursday.
Make no mistake about it, the SNP have work to do if they are to guarantee keeping hold of power at next year’s Holyrood election.
The First Minister has some explaining to do.
Swinney’s questionable tactics
The SNP leader, who has been a frequent visitor to Hamilton during the campaign, told journalists two weeks ago that his party was in a “three-way contest” with Labour and Reform to win the seat.
READ MORE: Hamilton by-election: Polls close in crucial Scottish Parliament battle that will shape party fates
But in a move to try and unsettle Labour, Mr Swinney had repeatedly claimed that Labour’s chances were toast and instead, it was a straight fight between the SNP and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. That narrative has turned out to be mince.
The SNP will need to reflect on what went wrong and how the party will stand up for its record in government when voters across Scotland head to polling stations in May next year. But one thing is for sure, next year’s Holyrood election is set to be fireworks.
Despite Reform and Mr Farage doing their best to shake Mr Sarwar with misinformation and personal attacks branded “racist”, Labour has cut through the noise and shaken up Scottish politics.
SNP are beatable next year
Labour can now claim, with evidence, they can beat the SNP - something Reform cannot boast. That is a key message to take to the public next year.
The party worked wonders with a narrative of being positioned to oust an unpopular and tired government at Westminster last year. If Mr Sarwar can apply that formula to next year’s Holyrood election, grabbing the keys to Bute House remains a real possibility.
It is important to reflect on how bad things have been for Labour.
A senior Scottish Labour source admitted “it has been a troubling 12 months for the Labour party” - an acknowledgement that is hard to dispute.
READ MORE: Huge ramifications on the line for SNP, Labour and Reform after Hamilton by-election dirty campaign
The UK government’s agenda has upset a lot of people and has harmed Labour’s chances of sweeping to victory at Holyrood next year. But what has been underplayed, particularly by Mr Swinney’s party, has been the almost two decades of SNP power and a frustration at a lack of improvement in standard of living.
This by-election campaign has been rotten. Reform have thrown mud at Mr Sarwar and Labour’s opponents have flung criticism at Mr Russell in what the Scottish Labour leader has branded “elitism and classism”.
Reform put Scottish Labour in the spotlight
The story of the campaign has been Reform’s battle with Mr Sarwar.
READ MORE: 'No-show Nigel' as Farage dodges media and protesters during a whirlwind farce in Hamilton
“They made everything about us”, a senior Labour source said.
The source added: “It also meant they showed a lot of people what they are really about.”
The insider said: “This shows what we have been saying throughout this campaign - if you want to get rid of the SNP in seats like this across Scotland, you need to vote for Labour.
“We can beat the SNP, Reform cannot.”
But Reform was not far behind. That progress, given Mr Farage’s party won less than 8 per cent of the vote in the Westminster seat last year, is not to be ignored.
Reform’s polished candidate, Ross Lambie, was less than 900 votes away from the SNP’s Katy Loudon and only 1,500 votes away from an unprecedented victory. All this achieved without any sort of Scottish infrastructure and network of activists. Instead, Reform were left to blanket leaflet constituents and what one senior party source said was a reliance on “vibes”.
Richard Tice, the party deputy leader, swooped into the by-election count in Hamilton, facing questions over Reform’s chairman, Zia Yusuf, who had quit in yet another race row, just hours earlier.
Mr Tice told journalists as he arrived that he was “encouraged” by his party’s performance. Running both the SNP and Labour close, as well as what polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice described as having the Tories “for breakfast, lunch and dinner”, is not to be sniffed at.
Labour under-estimated
But the narrative was stacked against Labour and Mr Sarwar.
All signals, all Scotland-wide polling pointed to the SNP winning the seat up for grabs in very sombre circumstances following the death of Scottish Government minister Christina McKelvie.
But Labour’s chances were under-estimated, none more so than their candidate.
Mr Russell has received criticism for how he speaks - with a brutal car-crash interview with STV earlier this week raising alarm bells.
Mr Sarwar has insisted his candidate is ”not a politician” and with all the talk and claims from Reform they speak for real people, Labour have discovered a candidate whom voters have struck up an affection for.
Mr Russell is well-liked - you need only to walk around Hamilton and people know who he is. He secured the South Lanarkshire bowls club vote and Labour’s hard graft on the doorsteps across the constituency has got them over the line in a dramatic victory.
One Scottish Labour source described it as “the most co-ordinated and organised strategy we’ve ever done in Scotland”.
If that hard work can be replicated across Scotland next year, write off Labour at your peril. Next year’s Holyrood election is poised to be the closest battle seen in a generation.
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