Huge ramifications on the line for SNP, Labour and Reform after Hamilton by-election dirty campaign

The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, being held due to the death of SNP MSP Christina McKelvie, will have huge ramifications for Scottish politics and for next year’s Scottish Parliament election.

Without any local polling, experts and commentators have relied on Scotland-wide opinion forecasting that points to the SNP winning the seat - while Labour face a battle for second place with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

SNP leaving nothing to chance

The SNP are taking nothing for granted but on the ground, it feels like this is their seat to lose.

READ MORE: Bowls, bus shelters and race rows: Why Hamilton by-election will shape the fate of Scottish Labour and Reform

One senior SNP source said that they were taking a leaf out of Nicola Sturgeon’s book, who would always be “pessimistic” about elections, despite being incredibly successful at the ballot box. It is clear the SNP is leaving nothing to chance.

John Swinney’s persistent message of framing the election about a choice between the SNP and Reform is a canny one - tabling his party as the only option to stop Mr Farage getting a foothold in Scottish politics.

An SNP source stressed that “we have to win this for Christina”, adding that “she stood for the exact opposite of what Reform do”.

“She would have been so annoyed if we lose her seat to them”, the insider added.

A lot of the focus has been on Labour and Reform - not helped by the misinformation aimed at Anas Sarwar by Mr Farage and his chaotic visit north of the Border earlier this week.

Big moment for John Swinney’s leadership

But for the SNP, a win in today’s by-election will be the first real step towards Mr Swinney retaining power at next year’s Holyrood election. It could even be a bit of a leap.

Things could have been so different.

Just 11 months ago, Scottish Labour obliterated the SNP in the Westminster general election that saw Sir Keir Starmer become Prime Minister and Mr Swinney’s party whittled down to just nine MPs.

But as is so often the case in politics, things have rapidly changed.

On the wave of success last summer, Mr Sarwar insisted that the Westminster result was the first of two stages of a Labour victory. But the UK Labour government has managed to upset large swathes of the electorate from day one of power - putting the sequel on the ropes.

UK government causing Labour damage

Labour’s plummet in the polls has been unprecedented. Chancellor Rachel Reeves instantly painted a gloomy picture of the economy as justification for a flurry of unpopular policies. But Labour’s biggest error has been in failing, alongside that context, to instill confidence they can fix the mess and bring about the change that was promised.

READ MORE: Anas Sarwar blasts 'classism attacks' on Labour Hamilton by-election candidate as John Swinney has say

That lacklustre message from Labour has been an open goal for the SNP.

If Katy Loudon, the SNP by-election candidate does become an MSP, it would signal the party finally putting behind it a dismal couple of years - with a laser focus set on retaining power next year.

Mr Swinney has been careful not to assume his party will be victorious today, but he has suggested that doing so would be a big move towards him retaining power.

For Labour, a defeat could be catastrophic.

If this by-election was being held in the context of last year, Mr Sarwar would be on course for a statement victory that would set his sights on the Bute House hot-seat. Instead, the Scottish Labour leader risks staring down a humbling defeat with no obvious strategy to resurrect his plans for power in 11 months’ time.

From outside the Labour bubble, the obvious place to point the finger would be the UK government. Even yesterday as Mr Sarwar and his candidate, Davy Russell, rallied the troops for the final full day of campaigning, a local walking past the set-piece event in the middle of Hamilton simply shouted “but what will you do for the Waspi women” in an attack on another promise Sir Keir’s government has backtracked on.

READ MORE: 'No-show Nigel' as Farage dodges media and protesters during a whirlwind farce in Hamilton

A senior Labour source said the media had been “swept up” by the fuss caused by Mr Farage and Reform and that the significance had been “completely overblown”. The Reform leader’s visit north has probably done Labour a favour, but if Mr Sarwar’s party securing second place is spun as a positive result, it will be clear that things are tough.

Farage’s mischief

If Scottish Labour do suffer defeat in today’s by-election, particularly if they drop behind Reform, without shaking that legacy of one of the most unpopular UK governments in living memory, Mr Sarwar’s chances of becoming the next first minister are toast.

READ MORE: Anas Sarwar says Nigel Farage has 'crashed Reform's by-election campaign' and attacks defector

Reform probably cannot believe their luck. Mr Farage’s party has grabbed headlines and insists it can make waves in today's election. Expectations have been downgraded somewhat, however, with Mr Farage suggesting coming in third place would be a good achievement. And despite the circus his party had brought to the campaign, dirty and nasty in large doses, he is not wrong.

A huge part of the likely fallout from this by-election is yet to be explored in depth - the dismal prospects for Russell Findlay’s Scottish Conservatives if they fall significantly behind Reform, as is a real possibility.

Mr Farage’s party is not as popular as it is south of the Border, but it is clear that a significant number of Scots, including in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, have been persuaded by his message.

This campaign has been all about causing mischief for Reform, but winning a significant number of votes will put Mr Farage’s party on course to enter Holyrood next year, most likely through the regional list - a prospect that looked almost impossible just 12 months ago.

Whichever party wins today's election and whoever slumps to defeat, the result will set the tone for what is quickly looking like a hostile and divided campaign to elect the next Scottish Parliament in less than a year’s time.