Why 'lucky' John Swinney may yet become the SNP’s weakest link

There was a problem, however, and that was the SNP’s own record, which grew more appalling from week to week. Fortunately, from 2010 to 2024, it was hidden in plain sight by the Conservative administrations of Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and Sunak – or was ignored by many because independence was their priority.

Elections never held the SNP accountable, not least because Conservatives themselves wanted to fight on the independence issue, as that gave them an edge over their Labour competitors.

With the arrival of new Labour Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, there was a sense of hope among many Scots that the SNP could be held to account for the failing public services under their control.

READ MORE: YouGov poll: Fewer than one in five Labour voters in Scotland happy with UK government record

Looming £5bn black hole in Scotland’s finances

The list of calamities that the SNP cannot escape responsibility for is long, including the deteriorating NHS, the more violent schools and falling education standards, the worst drug deaths in Europe, the ferries scandal, and the over-promising of higher welfare benefits and “free stuff” that are creating a black hole estimated by the Scottish Fiscal Commission at some £5 billion.

There’s also failure to dual the A9, the ending of off-peak rail fares, and the starvation of funding to local authorities. And let’s not forget the failure of so-called progressive policies such as the dystopian state guardian for children, hate crime law changes, and the Gender Recognition Reform Bill that threatened women’s rights. All have been on Swinney’s watch.

He has either been directly involved in these debacles as a Cabinet minister, Deputy First Minister and then the real thing. There is very little of the SNP’s appalling record in power that Swinney has either not been involved in, cheered on, defended or initiated. “Safe Pair of hands” is a claim without substance based merely on his personality being more staid than that of his predecessors.

READ MORE: Unpaid women’s groups offer more effective opposition to the SNP than Scottish Labour

Labour’s rise and fall

Suddenly, with Starmer in Downing Street, helped by winning some Scottish seats, and polling suggesting Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar would be a refreshing and acceptable change, Swinney looked like he would be left holding the parcel when the music stopped.

Then, after a few short months, we were reminded what Labour is like in government (although we could have looked to Wales if we wanted some clues). The reversals and betrayals on policy – such as the winter fuel allowance being cut for ten million pensioners, the above-inflation public sector pay rises without any productivity improvements, and then the very scary Halloween Budget were only the start of Labour’s decline.

Now Starmer is the most unpopular PM on record and Chancellor Rachel Reeves is just behind him. With another Budget set to introduce further tax rises, Sarwar must privately be hoping that a replacement leader will be installed before next year’s Holyrood election.

Forget “honest” and “safe pair of hands” – he is “lucky” John Swinney. By lucky, I mean coming first in the Scottish Grand National, Hearts winning the SPFL and having the right postcode in that lottery.

Swinney’s questionable tactics

When in trouble, deflect, is Swinney’s old trick and we saw it again when instead of answering points about matters he is responsible for, he called for the dismissal of Sir Robbie Gibb from the BBC’s board, because he is, er, a Tory appointed by a past Tory Prime Minister.

As odd ideas go Swinney excelled himself by suggesting the way to challenge accusations of left-wing BBC bias is by, er, sacking the only obvious right-of-centre figure in the BBC. Actually Gibb is a very well qualified member of the BBC board, he built his 20-year broadcasting career in the BBC, rose to be head of its political shows – accepted by all parties – and only reluctantly left the BBC to help Prime Minister May in Downing Street.

If we really want political bias and favouritism, there is a long list of SNP placements in Scottish quangos waiting to be written up.

Why is Swinney’s government still contesting the Supreme Court ruling on gender in relation to Scotland’s prisons? He cannot tell us – and his excuse that he cannot say because there is a “live case”, after campaign group For Women Scotland launched a judicial review, has been shown to be incorrect. Would a true 'Honest John' persist with it?

Why is Swinney’s government delaying over legal expenses that it is duty-bound to pay to For Women Scotland? It needn’t take so long and has the hallmarks of infantile retribution against the women for having had the audacity to challenge the SNP.

Show some moral courage

Why does the SNP government continue to insist the majority of Scottish taxpayers are better off under SNP tax rates when the Scottish Fiscal Commission has dismissed the claim?

And why has Swinney not ruled out the idea – recommended in a report commissioned by Yousaf and published last week – that abortions in Scotland should be allowed on the grounds of the child being the ‘wrong’ sex? Does anyone believe the words "I don't want a boy" will be uttered if such a choice is allowed? Surely the female sex will again be the victims.

And surely ruling out such a change in policy was an opportunity for Swinney to show some moral courage and dispel the impression that the SNP is fast becoming the go-to party for misogynists? Surely Swinney’s obvious evasiveness and association with policies that weaken women’s rights is easy to change – so why resist?

Could John Swinney yet become the SNP’s weakest link? There’s time yet.

Brian Monteith is a former member of the Scottish and European parliaments and editor of ThinkScotland.org