Why breaking a manifesto promise on tax may be Labour's least-worst option
The government can raise taxes or make another possibly doomed attempt to cut spending, but what it cannot do is increase the national debt
In medieval times, breaking a promise was generally seen as a heinous offence with ‘oathbreakers’ often finding themselves in deep trouble – or even dead. William the Conqueror made great play of the oath of fealty sworn by King Harold to justify the Norman invasion of England.
Today, attitudes towards dishonesty are usually less strict and sometimes woefully lax, but we still expect governments to stick to promises made to win our support before an election.
For all that Labour won at last year’s election largely because of dissatisfaction with the previous Conservative government, rather than their manifesto, what they said then and what they are doing now still matter.
Labour rebellions on benefit cuts
Amid speculation that Labour will break a manifesto pledge not to raise taxes on working people in the looming Budget, a row has broken out over whether this would be justified.
Warning about the loss of the public’s trust, Labour’s deputy leader, Lucy Powell, said: “It's really important we stand by the promises that we were elected on and that we do what we said we would do.” However, she also called for the two-child benefit cap to be lifted “in full” and has previously criticised the government’s attempts to cut disability benefits and pensioners’ winter fuel payments.
Labour rebellions over welfare cuts are one reason why a black hole has opened up in the country’s finances, leaving Chancellor Rachel Reeves in a difficult position.
She can raise taxes and break a manifesto pledge or cut spending and face another predictable backbench rebellion. Both options are likely to cause Labour to slide even further down in the polls. What she cannot and must not do is increase the UK’s staggering national debt, which she has sensibly insisted she will seek to reduce.
In the end, it is unreasonable to expect ministers to stick to manifesto pledges entirely. If circumstances change, so must they. It comes down to a judgment call as to whether it is warranted.
Even if raising taxes is the least-worst option, given the circumstances, we suspect some voters may conclude that Labour, or at least their rebels, have been the authors of their own misfortune, and judge them harshly, if not quite medievally.
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