Labour’s shock win in Hamilton is a reminder to all of us the SNP has years of baggage

John Swinney and friends had crafted a narrative that Labour were damaging Scotland’s economy, overseeing austerity and, as a result, had no chance of winning. What he perhaps forgot was those same charges could be applied to the SNP, and for 17 years, not less than one.

We as pundits, journalists, and indeed many politicians got sucked into this narrative. Sir Keir Starmer’s popularity had plummeted. The winter fuel allowance changes, two-child benefit and difficult economic forecast meant Labour could no longer be trusted, and voters were excited to go to the polls and make their feelings clear.

This, of course, was nonsense. Voters perhaps put more weight on years of uncertainty than they did the struggles of a new government, which in hindsight seems obvious.

It was less than two years since Scotland came second last among the UK nations for science and maths and was below England on all measures. People are still waiting on the NHS app, costing them £17 million, which now will not launch until 2026. That’s to say nothing of wait times or the numerous scandals that have engulfed the SNP.

Then there was the candidate himself, or your new MSP Davy Russell as he’s known, who endured car crash TV appearances when he actually showed up. Scottish Labour insisted he was a strong candidate known in the local area and didn’t need to do too much media. It was all a bit Boris Johnson hiding in the fridge, but it worked.

It was also down to the Prime Minister, who declined to campaign in Hamilton during a visit to Scotland. All of this combined gave us the impression that the party was giving up, not wanting to taint Starmer with a defeat. In truth, it may have been that his attendance would have been a detriment, rather than an asset to the campaign.

All of which is to say, I can see how we all got it so wrong, but that doesn’t make it right. We had been warned, of course we were.

It was only in March that an Ipsos survey found Scots are more negative than positive about the Scottish Government’s performance. But Labour’s teething issues, the SNP narrative and a candidate not conforming to what was expected rattled us, allowed us to focus on what was in front of us, rather than the years of failure if we’d dared to turn around.

For Labour, this is a stunning victory, validation of their strategy and perhaps hope that Holyrood could indeed be in their grasp.

I recall one MP saying to me many months ago that voters were leaving Labour, but not to anyone else, they were undecided. The party gambled when reminded of the SNP record, they would come back. That roll of the dice has paid off.

Much like the polls predicting an SNP win in Scotland during the general election, as a collective, the majority of us got it wrong. Labour will hope to keep defying the odds, and creating their own narrative.