Scottish Rugby putting house in order but autumn of success or failure rests on Argentina acid test

The eye-watering losses of 2023 and 2024 have been stemmed and Murrayfield is being spruced up after looking decidedly careworn in recent years.

It remains a loss-making business but the numbers posted this week are cause for cautious optimism. A £3.68 million deficit represents a year-on-year improvement of £7.6m and the aim is to break even by 2026-27.

The business was haemorrhaging money at an alarming rate in the dog days of the Mark Dodson regime but the former chief executive still walked away with close to £900,000 in his final year.

Alex Williamson, his successor, has been in post since January, continuing the careful husbandry begun by Scottish Rugby Limited chairman John McGuigan.

Williamson is not a radical. He favours continuity and handed out new contracts to Gregor Townsend and Franco Smith a couple of months ago, tying the Scotland and Glasgow Warriors coaches to the union until 2027 and 2028, respectively. Talks are ongoing with Sean Everitt at Edinburgh to make it a hat-trick.

Faith in Townsend - but rankings have dropped

The show of faith in Townsend was particularly telling. All things being equal, he will lead Scotland into the next Rugby World Cup in Australia in two years’ time, the draw for which will be made two weeks on Wednesday.

But things have stalled on the pitch. Scotland look to have missed their chance of being top seeds at the World Cup, having slipped from sixth place in the world rankings in the summer to their current placing of eighth. Even a win over Argentina at Murrayfield on Sunday would not be enough to lift them back into the all-important top six; they would still be relying on results elsewhere.

But regardless of rankings, the outcome of the match against South Americans will determine whether this autumn campaign has been a success or failure for Scotland.

It opened with an 85-0 win over the USA which, though impressive enough, told us little we didn’t already know, most pertinently that the gulf between the sides is huge.

There was much to admire in the way Townsend’s side fought their way back into the game against New Zealand last week but the home side’s inability to turn their second-half dominance into a victory will gnaw away at players and management. Sione Tuipulotu recognised as much afterwards. “I don't want to get up here and say I'm proud of the group and we played well because I think we're a better team than that now,” said the captain, offering an insight into squad expectations.

Townsend has mostly kept faith with the players who fought back from 17-0 down to draw level with New Zealand before losing 25-17.

Finn Russell has been passed fit to play despite injuring both his knee and ankle last Saturday. The only change to the starting team is the selection of Rory Darge who will replace Matt Fagerson in the back row.

As expected, the Argentina game has come too soon for Matt’s older brother, Zander Fagerson, who has been out for seven months with calf and knee injuries. Scotland coach Gregor Townsend is hopeful the prop will be fit for Scotland’s final autumn Test, against Tonga a week on Sunday. In the meantime, D’arcy Rae continues at tighthead after a solid performance against New Zealand.

There is a significant change among the replacements for the Argentina game, with Duhan van der Merwe earning a recall as Townsend reverts to three backs on the bench.

The big winger is Scotland’s joint highest try-scorer of all time but was dropped for the New Zealand game - for the first time in his international career - with Kyle Steyn preferred. Steyn keeps his place for the Pumas match but van der Merwe is likely to feature at some point as an impact sub. Marshall Sykes drops out to make way for van der Merwe and the five-three split.

Rory Sutherland has not been included in the squad to face Argentina due to concussion so Glasgow’s Nathan McBeth steps in to provide cover at loosehead.

Three years ago, Scotland bounced back from a gut-wrenching loss to New Zealand by tearing into Argentina and beating them 52-29 in a thriller which featured 12 tries, six cards and a full-blown rammy.

50th cap milestone for Hawick flyer

Darcy Graham scored a hat-trick that day, his first in Scotland colours, and the Hawick flyer will win his 50th cap this weekend. He is tied with van der Merwe as Scotland’s leading try-scorer, with the two Edinburgh wingers having 34 apiece.

Townsend believes Graham has added to his game considerably across his seven-year Test career and paid tribute to one of Scotland’s outstanding players of the modern age.

“He's had a few injuries and to get to 50 caps and be a joint top try scorer in our history is saying something for his ability when he gets those opportunities, but also how he's responded to injuries,” said the coach.

“He's really improved his game too. When he first came through, he was very difficult to defend because of his footwork and his strength, but he's added so much more to his game. His contact work is outstanding, his high ball work is excellent. He's a link player now, so he creates opportunities for others when he draws a lot of defenders onto himself.

“We're really pleased for him to get that Lions game in the summer to become a Lion. He really deserved that with what he's done for us over the last few years.”

There is one more game to follow the Argentina clash, at home to Tonga a week on Sunday, and that could present an opportunity for Townsend to try some players who have yet to feature in this campaign.

But it’s the Pumas who provide Scotland’s autumn acid test. They come to Edinburgh on the back of a record win over Wales last weekend and their summer scalps include New Zealand, Australia and the British and Irish Lions.

Townsend has warned his squad to expect the unexpected. “They've got a way of playing which is to move the ball wide at times, but they have different attacking shapes, so they might throw something different at the weekend,” he said. “What they've been consistently excellent at is their high ball work. We saw that when they played the Lions in Dublin in June. It's been a hallmark of their success, winning the ball in the air. It's something we have to control, manage, but also dominate this weekend.”