Scotland v New Zealand: One player's fitness may go long way to determining outcome - Fraser Brown

I’m not sure how much of an insight we gained from the matches Scotland and New Zealand played at the weekend. The 85-0 win over the USA threw up some milestones: Duhan van der Merwe's 50th cap, a record win at Murrayfield, a couple of debuts and Darcy Graham going back level with Duhan as top try-scorer.

It was also a nice start for new defence coach Lee Radford - keeping any team to nil is obviously a bonus. The New Zealand-Ireland game was more interesting. To be honest, I thought New Zealand looked rusty for long spells which is excusable being the first game on tour, but they still had enough quality to pull away from Ireland in the last 15-20 minutes, an ominous sight from a team not in full flow.

I was impressed by New Zealand's skills and how comfortable their players were on the ball from 1-15. It strikes me every time I watch them play that no matter the number on their back, they seem to have extra time on the ball to pick a pass or make the decision.

Their forwards never seem pressured into forcing passes and the backs have a calmness when trying to pick the ‘right’ pass. Although rusty, their cohesion as a group seemed to be coming back to them in the last quarter in Chicago.

Barrett brothers will be missed

New Zealand will be without both Scott and Jordie Barrett at Murrayfield and they will both be missed. Losing their captain will make a difference. Despite the leadership qualities of others such as Beauden Barrett, Codie Taylor and Ardie Savea, Scott Barrett is such a big influence in the group and I’m sure he will be missed.

The same goes for his brother, Jordie, who is arguably one of the top players in the world at the minute. You look at how he finished last season, how important he was for not only New Zealand, but also Leinster, as well as his experience of playing in the Northern Hemisphere. The All Blacks are a weaker proposition this week without him in the midfield…but only just.

Scotland could also be missing a couple of key players on Saturday and they will feel it more. Gregor Townsend will name his team on Thursday, and everyone is eager to see if Rory Darge and Zander Fagerson will be involved.

Zander’s fitness is key

A 100 per cent fit Darge starts every time for Scotland. But if he’s only 80 per cent fit then I don’t think you can justify selecting him ahead of Jamie Ritchie, Jack Dempsey or Matt Fagerson. There's a lot of good options in that back row. I don't think Rory will start but may be fit enough for the bench.

How fit Zander is may go a long way to determining the outcome at the weekend. If he is 100 per cent, then obviously, he comes straight back in. Even at 90 per cent he is so important to Scotland that you would imagine he has to play. However, we can’t afford to rush him back after seven months out.

If he is fit and he does play, then he has to start. He will be rusty and lacking in match sharpness, but he is more than capable of performing at the level required despite his lack of game time. When fully fit and on form he would more than likely play the full 80 minutes against the All Blacks. If they can get at least 50 then that would be some achievement.

Scotland’s last meeting with New Zealand, in 2022, is a game that’s been pored over this week.

Not in squad, then starting against All Blacks

From a personal perspective, the build-up was a little unusual as I hadn't been picked in the original autumn squad. I'd missed out completely. I was called in to be 24th man against Fiji and asked to stay in the following week. I then found myself starting against New Zealand a week later, only my second involvement with Scotland after suffering a neck injury in 2020. I still can't quite get my head around that. One week I couldn't even get in a 45-man squad and then I'm starting against the All Blacks!

We started very poorly that day. I think we were 14-0 down after seven minutes all through our own mistakes. We recovered well and completely controlled the game for the next 60, scoring 23 unanswered points to lead by nine. Unfortunately we just didn’t have enough in the last 10 minutes, and they pulled away to win 31-23.

It was a great game. Another electric atmosphere ignited before kick-off by the sight of Doddie Weir, the great man, and his family, pitch side. I thought we were really physical throughout the game and our set-piece worked really well.

Then, like now, New Zealand had a really good scrum, second in the world only to South Africa. We were clever all game, changing the picture, changing the gap size, our pressure on the binds, angles, never letting them settle. We made it very difficult for them to get rhythm at scrum time and denied them a foothold from their set-piece.

When you think about the All Blacks, you think about their skill-set, attacking rugby, counter-attacking rugby, transition attack. But actually, what's been really key to their success, and notably against Scotland, is the quality of set-piece. Their set-piece launches have been so clinical and devastating and we felt that if we could get clean ball ourselves and not give them turnover ball from our set-piece then we could disrupt them.

The big challenge for Scotland this week will be maintaining their level for the entire game. Everyone always says it's an 80-minute game, and it really is. In the moments that you're not quite on it you just have to try to not concede or give away advantages or allow the opposition to build up momentum.

We could see a similar game plan to 2022. Scotland will think that they can get at New Zealand's defence which has looked vulnerable at times, even last week against a very blunt Irish attack

Concerns about physicality and the lineout

They scramble really well but Jordie Barrett is a big part of that. If you think back to the 2023 World Cup or Leinster last season, how many times was Jordie Barrett the last defender, who got back and put in a tackle or held someone up over the line? Although they scramble well, they're soft on the edges and I think the way Scotland play in attack, with a lot of width, can stress them.

With Finn Russell at 10, Scotland will look to play a lot of wide passes. I'm sure they'll try and stretch the pitch from touchline to touchline. New Zealand will try to cover that early and that might lead to some soft spaces back on the inside that Scotland can exploit.

It's tough to predict how Saturday will go. My heart says Scotland, and I think if we had a fully fit squad, with Zander and Rory both at 100 per cent, we could maybe sneak it. But I worry about Zander's availability and I worry about the physicality of the squad and the depth in the front row.

I also worry about the lineout. Last week New Zealand denied Ireland clean ball at the lineout and if they equally disrupt Scotland there this weekend then it will be very hard for the home team to get their big strike players into the game.

If Scotland struggle at the set-piece, you can see New Zealand winning by nine, 10, 11 points. But if Scotland can get a platform off the set-piece then it's going to be much closer, a point or two either way. Fingers crossed.