Scotland don't get this Six Nations generational chance very often - modern history awaits

Modern history hasn’t been kind to the national team, particularly in the Six Nations era where they have failed to finish in the top two since the tournament was expanded in 2000.

An away win at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday afternoon would change all that. It would give Scotland the Triple Crown for the first time since 1990 and pile the pressure on France who host England in the final game of the championship at 8.10pm.

A French slip-up could hand the title to the Scots but Gregor Townsend’s side must first take care of business in Dublin, something they have not done since 2010 when Dan Parks kicked them to victory at Croke Park.

Their record against Ireland under Townsend is awful - 11 consecutive defeats - but the mood feels different in Dublin this time. Scotland go into the match on the back of a three-game winning run, with England, Wales and France all beaten after loss to Italy in Rome on the opening weekend.

Last weekend’s victory over Fabien Galthie’s previously all-conquering France was particularly inspiring and suggests this side are made of the right stuff. They led 47-14 at one point before eventually winning 50-40 triumph following a late French rally. It was nevertheless a result that would have startled their rivals.

Townsend feels his side have found more ways to play the game. The midfield trio of Finn Russell, Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones is irresistible when it clicks and Scotland have also been strong aerially, a facet developed under Townsend and put into practice by Kyle Steyn in particular. But it’s the physical challenge that has been their downfall against Ireland.

Scotland will need to front up

Hugo Southwell, who played in the last Scotland team to win in Dublin in 2010, noted in these pages this week that being outmuscled up front has been the team’s downfall against Ireland because it stops the flow of quick ball to Ben White and Russell. “Have we managed to work that out in all the times we've played against them?” asked the former full-back.

Townsend knows all this, of course. “It comes down to the collisions and the physicality,” he said. “That's where Ireland have been better than us.”

The importance of the physical battle is not lost on Tuipulotu, either.

“I think that's the game, to be honest,” said the Scotland captain. “I think in Test rugby you go through all these things of game planning and all the intricacies around the lineout, scrum or even kick strategy, but I feel like Test rugby is pretty simple, you win the collisions, you win the game.

“The collisions are the breakdown, the collisions are the tackle, the collisions are the defence, and I haven't seen many people lose when they win those three.”

Tuipulotu feels Scotland are now better equipped in that department having made “adjustments” in the aftermath of big setbacks against Argentina in the autumn and Italy in the opening game of this campaign. He talks about “empowering the pack” and there was evidence of this against France as Scotland gained the upper hand physically against a team who had swatted away Ireland, Wales and Italy in their three previous games.

“I felt like our pack dominated the French pack last week and that hasn't happened to the French pack this championship,” said Tuipulotu.

Scotland have not won four games in a row in the championship since the Grand Slam season of 1990 but this is what will be needed if Townsend’s side are to lift major silverware. A victory will give the Scots the Triple Crown but they’ve been in this movie before in the recent past. They had a crack at it in 2023 and 2024 but both attempts foundered against Ireland.

A strange rivalry has developed between the Celtic cousins who no longer really like each other and whose media outlets like to swap accusations of arrogance which tend to be based on flimsy evidence.

Darcy Graham’s remark this week that “Ireland were there for the taking” was the latest soundbite to provoke a kerfuffle. Scotland have been keen to play a straight bat since but there remains a suspicion that this Irish side does not possess the minerals of some of their more star-studded predecessors.

They do, however, have history on their side. Scotland have not won on the Lansdowne Road/Aviva site since 1998 when Townsend was playing. Scotland have not lifted the championship since 1999 and have claimed only two Triple Crowns since 1938. Ireland, by contrast, are aiming for their ninth Triple Crown of the Six Nations era on Saturday.

Whoever wins at the Aviva faces an agonising wait to discover if England are going to do them a favour. Steve Borthwick’s side have shown nothing in this campaign thus far to suggest they can cause an upset in Paris but this has been a tournament that has thrown up some incredible results. The rugby writer Peter Jackson summed it up neatly when he summarised: “Wales who lost to England, who lost to Ireland, who lost to France, who lost to Scotland, who lost to Italy who might yet lose to Wales.”

Whatever unfolds on Saturday, this has been a Six Nations for the ages but it also represents a generational opportunity for Scotland. In each of the last two years they have been present at the party as the victors celebrated with the Six Nations trophy. This time around they can lift some silverware of their own. It’s long overdue.

Ireland: 15 J Osborne; 14 R Baloucoune, 13 G Ringrose, 12 S McCloskey, 11 T O’Brien; 10 J Crowley, 9 J Gibson-Park; 1 T O’Toole, 2 D Sheehan, 3 T Furlong, 4 J McCarthy, 5 T Beirne, 6 J Conan, 7 J Van der Flier, 8 C Doris (capt). Replacements: 16 R Kelleher, 17 M Milne, 18 F Bealham, 19 D Murray, 20 N Timoney, 21 C Casey, 22 C Frawley, 23 B Aki.

Scotland: 15 B Kinghorn; 14 D Graham, 13 H Jones, 12 S Tuipulotu (capt), 11 K Steyn; 10 F Russell, 9 B White; 1 P Schoeman, 2 G Turner, 3 Z Fagerson, 4 M Williamson, 5 G Gilchrist, 6 M Fagerson, 7 R Darge, 8 J Dempsey. Replacements: 16 E Ashman, 17 R Sutherland, 18 D Rae, 19 A Craig, 20 M Bradbury, 21, G Horne, 22 K Rowe, 23 T Jordan.

Referee: Luke Pearce (Eng).