How Scotland can win the Six Nations - and what they need from France v England

Not since they won the final instalment of the Five Nations in 1999 - before Italy were introduced as the sixth member the following year - has Scotland still been in contention on Super Saturday.

Scotland’s best finish in the Six Nations era has been third place, achieved in 2001, 2006, 2013, 2017, and 2023. On each occasion they had no mathematical chance of lifting the trophy by the time the competition entered the fifth and final round of fixtures.

However, after defeat by Italy in Rome on the opening weekend, victories over England, Wales and France mean Scotland still have everything to play for - including a first Triple Crown in 36 years.

Scotland secured the Five Nations Championship in 1999 on the final day with a famous win over France in Paris but had to rely on Wales defeating England in the later kick-off to clinch the title.

This time the favour will be required from England providing Scotland hold up their end of the bargain by defeating Ireland for the first time in 11 attempts under Gregor Townsend.

Scotland are currently second in the Six Nations table on 16 points, the same tally as leaders France, who top the standings thanks to a vastly superior +58 points difference advantage. Ireland are third on 14 points and still have their own title aspirations.

Scotland will move top of the Six Nations table providing they win or draw against Ireland in the 2.10pm kick-off at the Aviva Stadium. Even a narrow defeat could put them top depending on the how many bonus points are claimed by each side.

Whether Scotland remain in first place and secure the title will be determined by the outcome of France v England with all eyes on the Stade de France in the 8.10pm kick-off.

Here is what Scotland require on Super Saturday to win the Six Nations...

If Scotland defeat Ireland with a bonus point

Scotland will win the Six Nations title with a bonus-point victory over Ireland providing France fail to match that result against England. A bonus point is awarded to a team who score four tries or more. If both France and Scotland secure a bonus point win, the teams will finish tied on 21 points, meaning Scotland would need to overturn a 58-point difference deficit to claim top spot. Extremely unlikely.

If Scotland defeat Ireland without a bonus point

Scotland would finish on 20 points and France would overtake them at the top of the table in the later kick-off with a bonus point win over England. France would also finish in first place on points difference advantage if they beat England without the bonus point. Scotland would be left relying on a draw or an England victory in Paris to win the Six Nations.

If Scotland draw with Ireland

A draw without a bonus point would put Scotland top of the table on 18 points. France could match that tally and win the title on points difference even if they lose to England but claim two losing bonus points (i.e score four tries and lose by seven points or fewer). A Scotland draw with a bonus point would mean that France could not catch them if they lose to England.

If Scotland lose to Ireland

There is a slim chance that Scotland could win the Six Nations even after a defeat in Dublin but it would require a highly specific and mathematically extreme set of results in the final round. A loss on the pitch by a maximum of two points, with two losing bonus points, will keep them above Ireland on points difference providing Ireland don't get a try bonus point. With Scotland on 18 points, they would then win the Six Nations if France lose to England without getting two losing bonus points.

How Ireland can win the Six Nations

Ireland will win the Championship by defeating Scotland providing France fail to beat England. A bonus point win in Dublin would put Ireland onto 19 points which France could not match even if they claim two losing bonus points in a defeat to England. France would require a win to beat Ireland’s points tally or a draw with a try-scoring bonus point to finish top on points difference. Due to France's vastly superior points difference (+79 compared to Ireland's +16), Ireland almost certainly loses any tie-breaker if they finish level on points with Les Bleus. Therefore, if Ireland beat Scotland but don’t claim the bonus point, they will need France to lose to England without claiming the two points on offer. France could also afford to draw with England without collecting a try-scoring bonus point.