Edinburgh Rugby’s problem is 10-12-13 as rugby first-timers told 'go watch Glasgow Warriors'

For Glasgow, it is the best of times: riding high after winning all four of their pool-stage games, they host the Bulls on Saturday. Edinburgh, by contrast, are in the midst of a season of darkness. They have lost six of their last seven in all competitions and face a daunting away match against Leinster on Sunday.

Former Scotland captain John Barclay played for both clubs and will be working as an analyst for Premier Sports at Scotstoun and the Aviva. He has been hugely impressed by the way the Warriors have played this season under Franco Smith but admitted it was hard to make a case for Edinburgh pulling off a shock in Dublin.

While Edinburgh have burned brightly briefly, notably beating Toulon in the Champions Cup back in early December, there has been far more bad than good across a campaign in which they have progressed in Europe but are languishing in 13th place in the United Rugby Championship.

Edinburgh pay the price for resting key players

But Leinster away is the toughest of ties and Barclay believes they are paying the price for picking understrength teams in their two away games in the pool stage of the Champions Cup which contributed to heavy losses to Castres and Bath.

“They've got arguably one of the hardest draws in this round but they made their decision in the pool to rest for certain games, and they pay the consequence later on in the draw,” said the former flanker.

“So it's great to qualify for the round of 16 but I said at the time, I felt like they missed an opportunity when they were going away to Castres, certainly, to pick a full-strength side. And then away to Bath was always going to be a challenge, but it's been the story of Edinburgh's season. They beat Toulon very well, probably their performance of the season, then they get hammered the next week in Castres.

“It's just been a frustrating year for Edinburgh and feels like we've said it for a little while, they are just very consistently inconsistent, capable of great spells, capable of good performances, and not even week to week. Within matches they’ve showed an ability to not understand how to win games. The Ulster game [in the URC last month] was probably the most obvious one where they were, I think, 19-7 up and ended up losing 41-19. So if that doesn't tell you everything you need to know about a side's confidence and ability to see out in games and win games, I don't know what does.

“So, yeah, it's going to be bloody hard [against Leinster], especially off the back of travelling back from South Africa as well, having been beaten well twice over there. So it's very, very hard to put up a good case for Edinburgh to win. If they did, would it be the biggest upset in Champions Cup history? Well, maybe.”

A defeat on Sunday would effectively end Edinburgh’s season in a competitive sense. The URC play-offs are out of reach and a summer of transition looms. The club have already announced that assistant coaches Scott Mathie, Michael Todd and Rob Chrystie will all leave at the end of the campaign and there is also expected to be a major overhaul of the playing staff. Head coach Sean Everitt will remain in situ, having been awarded a two-year contract extension in January, a decision that raised eyebrows among many of the club’s supporters.

Issues in Edinburgh’s midfield axis

Barclay feels the squad is “not a million miles away” from being competitive and offers a broadly supportive view on Everitt but identifies a lack of creativity in midfield as a major problem.

“They chop and change and they've got a load of injuries,” he said. “But they can't pick a 10-12-13 combo and that's where the game is played now. You look at how Glasgow play, look at how all the top sides play, look at what that axis does.

“I couldn't tell you Edinburgh's 10-12-13 as I watch them every week. I certainly couldn't tell you what their best one is. And I think that's probably the area of recruitment that they need to really nail down. Because I think they've got the bones of a great pack.

“They've got good young players coming through in the back row. They've got really exciting back three. They've got lively scum-halves. The problem is 10-12-13. That's a huge, huge part of your team at the moment.”

“I think their pack can deal with almost any pack, as they showed against Toulon - one of the best French packs in the Top 14 and they handled them well, had the upper hand on them. So, the issue's not up front. The issue is what they're doing behind the scrum.”

Barclay offers the example of Ulster as to how quickly things can turn around. The Irish province finished 14th in the URC last season but are currently third thanks in no small part to the contribution of a couple of judicious signings, Wallaby prop Angus Bell and South African No 8 Juarno Augustus.

Glasgow can break new ground in Europe

“They signed an Australian loosehead, they signed Juarno Augustus and they go from bottom of the table to sitting third in the URC. It's not necessarily big sweeping changes. It's just bringing in a few names. I think that would make a huge difference. Edinburgh might have a different opinion but I think one or two really good signings can make a huge difference to them.”

Glasgow, by contrast, are in the strongest possible position as the season moves towards a climax. Top of the URC with four rounds remaining of the regular campaign, they can now turn their attention to the Champions Cup and because of the good work done in the group phase, they have a home pathway up to and including the semi-final if they can progress that far. That in itself would be breaking new ground because last season’s quarter-final is the furthest they have got in European club rugby’s top-tier tournament.

“I think Glasgow are so good to watch,” said Barclay. “You go and watch them play, they look so well-coached, so cohesive. They look like a team that knows how to figure out and find solutions on the pitch. They understand how to manage a game and form-wise, I think they've lost one in the last seven or eight.

“I always think if you don't watch a lot of rugby and you're going to come and watch a game, I'd say go watch Glasgow. I just think they're that style of team. They play such good rugby. They've built a great thing there at Scotstoun as well.”

A victory for Glasgow on Saturday would see them host either Toulon or the Stormers in the quarter-final the following week. If they were to come through that, it would likely set up a semi-final against Leinster. The reward for the winners would be a place in the final in Bilbao against a team from the top half of the draw where Toulouse, Bordeaux, Bath, Northampton and Saracens all lurk. So can Glasgow go all the way?

“Glasgow have never been past the quarter-finals and I think you see just how hard it is to win this competition against the giants of Europe, which are now Bordeaux, Toulouse, Leinster,” said Barclay. “But what I would say is that I've never seen a Glasgow side look this confident playing with this form, playing with this level of understanding of the game.

“And that being said, you look at Northampton last year, you just have to play well in three games and you're in the final. There's obviously a few teams that have got something to say about that. But I've seen enough from Glasgow to know that if they show up and play anywhere near their best, there's no reason why they can't certainly get to the semi-final and the final, and then anything is possible.”

John Barclay will be part of the Premier Sports team for both Glasgow Warriors' and Edinburgh's Investec Champions Cup games this weekend. Tune in on Saturday for Glasgow Warriors v Vodacom Bulls (live on Premier Sports 2 from 5.15pm). And on Easter Sunday for Edinburgh's trip to the Aviva in Dublin to face Leinster (live on Premier Sports 1 from 5.15pm). Visit premiersports.com to join in from just £11.99 a month @PremSports.tv