Could Edinburgh toddler's tragic death spark major overhaul of older driver licensing?

Xander Irvine was killed after being hit by Edith Duncan’s vehicle as she performed a turning manoeuvre in Edinburgh’s Morningside Road in June 2020.

In the wake of a fatal accident inquiry into the three-year-old’s death, Sheriff Principal Nigel Ross concluded the tragedy could have been avoided if the pensioner’s cognitive ability had been properly assessed, and had authorities subsequently moved to revoke her driving licence.

If enacted, the recommendations in his written determination would have widespread repercussions for hundreds of thousands of drivers in Scotland, with mandatory cognitive assessments to be carried out on drivers aged 80 or above.

The calls for a reform of the existing self-certification process have already gained significant political support. Earlier this month, Scottish ministers asked the UK government to consider a more “stringent process” for the licensing renewals of motorists aged 70 or over.

There is no legal age to stop driving in the UK, but motorists can voluntarily surrender their licence if they fail to meet the required standards due to a medical condition. Drivers over the age of 70 must also apply for a new licence every three years, and must declare relevant medical conditions - such as to the Driving and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA). 

But in his determination, Sheriff Ross said the self-certification system should be changed as a “matter of priority”, given that any assessment of Ms Duncan’s driving ability would have concluded she was “significantly cognitively impaired and unfit to hold a driving licence”. 

He has recommended the existing self-certification process should be halted for those aged 80 or over, who should instead undergo a “short, initial cognitive assessment”. Any failure to pass that, he reasoned, should result in a driver’s current licence, and their application for renewal, being suspended pending further assessment.

The change proposed by Sheriff Ross would require change to primary legislation that is reserved to Westminster. Asked about the determination, a spokeswoman for the DVLA, an executive agency of the UK Department for Transport, said road safety was its “absolute priority” and that it was “carefully considering” the sheriff’s recommendations. 

Already, however, there is political support in Scotland for changes to the existing system, with Scottish ministers making representations to the UK government earlier this month to take action on the licensing renewals of older motorists.

A Transport Scotland spokesman said ministers in Edinburgh were supportive of “more stringent processes” around licence renewals for drivers aged 70 and above. “Unfortunately, this age group continues to be overrepresented in road casualty statistics, which is why fitness to drive must be considered as part of efforts to reduce road deaths and save lives,” he said.

According to the most recent data compiled by the DVLA, the number of people killed or seriously injured from a collision involving at least one older driver - classed as those over 70 - increased from 3,082 in 2004 to 3,421 in 2023, a rise of 12 per cent. The data also shows that in 11 per cent of fatal or serious collisions involving older drivers last year, illness or disability was cited as a contributory factor. The equivalent figure for other aged car drivers was just 2 per cent. In 2023, 25 per cent of all car driver fatalities involved older drivers.

Liam McArthur, the Scottish Liberal Democrats’ justice spokesman, told The Scotsman that Xander Irvine’s death was an “especially tragic reminder of what can happen in the worst-case scenario”. He said: “In light of Nigel Ross’s ruling, I think it's clear that a wider review of the self-certification process is necessary.”

Maggie Chapman, the justice and equality spokeswoman for the Scottish Greens, said the “awful” case underlined the need to give “serious consideration to these changes”. She said: “Everyone deserves to feel safe on roads and we must support changes that reduce harm, creating a fair and reasonable system to truly mitigate risks to life.

“Any changes in certifying fitness to drive may be temporarily inconvenient for some drivers, but it helps to increase protection of lives and ensure safer streets and communities.”

Any such changes would invite questions of proportionality and their potential impact on older generations. In tandem with wider demographic shifts, there are now more older drivers than ever before, with around 1.65 million holders of full licences aged 80 or over, and 5.97 million aged 70 or over. 

Katherine Crawford, chief executive of Age Scotland, who described Xander’s death as an “unimaginable tragedy”, stressed it was “vitally important” that older drivers were safe on the roads, and said the “vast majority” were.

The charity recommends that older people who feel they are experiencing issues behind the wheel should talk with their GP, as well as family and friends, and undergo regular eye tests. But the prospect of bringing about the kind of changes outlined by Sheriff Ross, Ms Crawford said, would have a knock-on effect.

“Conducting a cognitive assessment of all drivers applying to renew their licence from the age of 75 would be a huge undertaking, which would require significant changes to the current system, and there is little evidence to suggest that it would be proportionate,” she said.

“It would significantly increase the workload on already struggling GPs, assuming the assessment needed to be carried out by a medical professional, and, as the findings note, would have to be done across the UK. It is also unclear how the changes would be funded, and would require proper consultation, along with guarantees that responsible older drivers weren’t unduly impacted.”