Scottish election 2026: The seats to look out for in the race for Holyrood glory
It may have been a dull election campaign, but that does not mean there will not be drama on polling day.
While this Holyrood campaign can be characterised by the lack of enthusiasm from the public at large, there are still interesting stories to be told.
Several seats are on a knife-edge, leaving John Swinney’s dream of leading for the next five years hanging in the balance.
Some seats could be close calls, and others could see big names like party leaders and government ministers losing to new names.
We’ve taken a look at some of the most interesting seats to keep an eye on at this year’s Scottish Parliament election.
Edinburgh Central
This seat really is a three-horse race between the SNP, the Scottish Greens and Scottish Labour.
Since 2021, this seat has been held by Culture Secretary Angus Robertson with a 4,732 majority. However, with new constituency boundaries the Greens are confident their former co-leader Lorna Slater is going to win the party’s first constituency seat here.
Some are even suggesting Mr Robertson, who now no longer lives in the constituency, could even fall into third place. Given he is fourth on the SNP’s list for the Edinburgh and Lothians East, losing this seat basically means he is out of a cushy government job (which could be one of the biggest upsets of the election).
Candidates: SNP - Angus Robertson; Labour - James Dalgleish; Conservative - Jo Mowat; Lib Dems - Charles Dundas; Reform UK - Gary Neill; Greens - Lorna Slater; Libertarian - Tam Laird; Alliance to Liberate Scotland - Craig Murray; Independent - Bob Bonnie Prince; Independent - Chris Creighton; Independent - Robert Pownall.
Read more: Holyrood elections 2026: Inside the three-way fight for key Edinburgh Central constituency
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross
This is where we might see another government minister losing their seat.
Several polls have predicted the most northerly constituency on the mainland will fall to the Lib Dems, unseating Drug and Alcohol Minister Maree Todd.
This area has been Lib Dem at Westminster since 2017 and the party is confident of overturning the SNP’s 2,591 majority.
While still an upset, the polling suggests a Lib Dem win here is almost a foregone conclusion.
Candidates: SNP - Maree Todd; Labour - Eva Kestner; Conservative - Donald Mackenzie; Lib Dem - David Green; Reform UK - Steve Welsh; Alliance to Liberate Scotland - Andrew Macdonald; Advance UK - Matt Sheppard.
Eastwood
This is where we might see an internal party battle amongst the Scottish Conservatives, and potentially one of the other biggest upsets.
In 2021, former Conservative leader Jackson Carlaw won this seat with a majority of 2,216. Some polls suggest he will cling onto this seat.
However, if the Scottish Conservatives do badly in the West of Scotland and Mr Carlaw wins Eastwood, that could see party leader Russell Findlay failing to win a regional seat. While the party is on course for an electoral drubbing, the party leader not winning a seat at all would be a huge loss for the party.
Candidates: SNP - Kirsten Oswald; Labour - Kayleigh Quinn; Conservative - Jackson Carlaw; Lib Dem - Euan Davidson; Reform UK - John Mooney.
Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine
The outcome here is probably not that exciting - researchers at the Diffley Partnership say there is a 95 per cent chance of this being an SNP hold.
What is of more interest is the name - this is the seat SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn is hoping to win so he can make the move to Holyrood.
He is ambitious and is being talked about as a next First Minister - a win here could certainly be an important footnote in the story of his political career.
Candidates: SNP - Stephen Flynn; Labour - Matthew Lee; Conservative - Liam Kerr; Lib Dem - Mel Sullivan; Reform UK - Duncan Massey; Independent - Iris Leask.
Banffshire and Buchan Coast
This seat was one of the tightest races back in 2021 - the SNP’s Karen Adam only won by 772 votes.
It is likely to be another tight race, with the Conservatives and Reform UK both hoping to win this seat. The equivalent area at Westminster is Conservative, and it was one of the highest pro-Brexit areas in Scotland back in 2016.
While this is more likely to fall to the Conservatives than it is to Reform UK, if Nigel Farage’s party was to win a constituency, this could be the one.
Candidates: SNP - Karen Adam; Labour - Brooke Ritchie; Conservative - James Adams; Lib Dem - Les Tarr; Reform UK - Conrad Ritchie; Independent - NDR McLennan.
Ayr
In 2021 this was the smallest margin of any constituency seat - the SNP won it with just 170 votes.
This seat is a four-way race now. The Conservatives came second in 2021, so they are in with a shout.
However, all the Ayrshire seats at the general election were won by Labour, and MRP polling suggests Reform UK could win. This makes Ayr potentially one of the most interesting to watch as it is so uncertain - and could see yet another SNP government minister toppled.
Candidates: SNP - Siobhian Brown; Labour - Brian McGinley; Conservative - Sharon Dowey; Lib Dem - Des Buchanan; Reform UK - Andrew Russell; Scottish Common Party - Muhammad Tufail; Independent - Denise Somerville.
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
Unlike Ayr, in 2021 this seat saw the highest majority of any MSP when Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes secured a thumping victory with a 15,861 majority.
However, she has stood down from frontline politics and while there is still a lot of love for the SNP here, the Lib Dems are challenging the nationalists.
At the general election this area was won by the Lib Dems and they are confident they can win this vast constituency. It is a massive majority to overturn - but they think they can do it.
Candidates: SNP - Eilidh Munro; Labour - Isla McCay; Conservative - Helen Crawford; Lib Dem - Andrew Baxter; Reform UK - Jon Whitton; Alliance to Liberate Scotland - Laùra Hänsler.
Read more: Holyrood election 2026: Inside the knife-edge rural constituency that will be one of the most hotly-contested
Dumbarton
The latest polling suggests this might be the only constituency seat Labour will hold onto, with deputy party leader Dame Jackie Baillie.
However, back in 2021 she only won with a small majority of 1,483.
Labour is not polling well at this election, so they will be determined to make sure their deputy leader can hold on, but the other parties are keen to take this seat off of her.
Candidates: SNP - Sophie Traynor; Labour - Dame Jackie Baillie; Conservative - Gary Mulvaney; Lib Dem - Elaine Ford; Reform UK - David Smith; Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition - Lynda McEwan; Independent - Andrew Muir.
Glasgow Southside
This is yet another seat the Greens have their eye on - and one which again could topple a government minister.
Since 2011, former first minister Nicola Sturgeon has been this area’s MSP - but Green councillor Holly Bruce is throwing everything at this race to win. If she does, Equalities Minister Kaukab Stewart could be out, as the SNP is unlikely to win any regional seats in Glasgow.
Candidates: SNP - Kaukab Stewart; Labour - Rashid Hussain; Conservative - Ross Hutton; Lib Dem - Rachel Park; Greens - Holly Bruce; Reform UK - Gordon Millar; Common Party - Kamran Butt; Independent - Arzoo Abdullah.
Inverness and Nairn
This seat has been held by one man ever since devolution - Fergus Ewing.
A titan of nationalist politics, the rebel backbencher has turned his back on the party his name is synonymous with and is now standing as an independent.
Is his name alone and his track record as a good local representative enough to carry him through once again? He does have a majority of 9,114 to play with.
The SNP think not, and are hoping former government minister Emma Roddick will prevail here.
The Lib Dems though, also want to win here - they are hoping Mr Ewing and Ms Roddick will split the pro-unionist vote in the Highland capital, and allow them to come through the middle and take victory. The fact the Lib Dems won here at the last general election is also on their side.
If Mr Ewing does not win this seat, it will be the first time none of the Ewing family is in Holyrood.
Candidates: SNP - Emma Roddick; Labour - Shaun Fraser; Conservative - Ruraidh Stewart; Lib Dem - Neil Alexander; Reform UK - Fred Campbell; Advance UK - Steve Skerrett; Independent - Fergus Ewing.
Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill
A number of polls suggest this is another constituency the Greens could pick up. If this happens, Iris Duane will become Holyrood’s first openly transgender MSP.
Given the subjects of trans rights, gender reform and single-sex spaces have dominated political conversation in the Scottish Parliament for the past five years, a victory for Ms Duane will certainly turn some heads. It is also worth noting here that Holyrood currently has a ban on trans women using female toilets.
It would also see Bob Doris, who has been the area’s MSP for the SNP for the past 10 years, out.
Candidates: SNP - Bob Doris; Labour - James Adams; Conservative - Daniel Bowan; Lib Dem - Daniel Khan-O’Malley; Reform UK - Aimee Alexander; Common Party - Thomas Adkins; Greens - Iris Duane.
Strathkelvin and Bearsden
This seat was won by the SNP with a massive majority of 11,484. However, at the general election this area was won by the Lib Dems.
Once again, the Lib Dems are hoping to win this seat off of the SNP at this election. There have been a number of polls which suggest they could be in luck, potentially denying John Swinney an outright majority.
Candidates: SNP - Denis Johnston; Labour - Colette McDiarmid; Conservative - Dr Pam Gosal; Lib Dem - Adam Harley; Reform UK - Faten Hameed.
Edinburgh Northern and Edinburgh Southern
These two seats could be all to play for at this election.
Edinburgh Southern was one of Labour’s few constituency wins in 2021, with a majority of 4,022. However, polls are suggesting this seat could fall to the SNP, potentially leaving Daniel Johnston hoping for a regional seat instead.
Meanwhile, Edinburgh Northern is another area the Lib Dems have their eyes on at this election - and again could make the difference between an SNP majority and not.
Edinburgh Northern candidates: SNP - Euan Hyslop; Labour - Eleanor Ryan-Saha; Conservative - Christopher Cowdy; Lib Dem - Sanne Dijkstra-Downie; Reform UK - Andrew McLaughlin; Greens - Kayleigh Kinross-O’Neil; Workers’ Party - Abu Meron.
Edinburgh Southern candidates: SNP - Deidre Brock; Labour - Daniel Johnston; Conservative - Marie-Clair Munro; Lib Dem - Jane Alliston-Pickard; Reform UK - Charles Turner; Edinburgh and East Lothian People - Marc Williamson.
Aberdeenshire West
Traditionally, the area that boasts being the Royal Family’s Scottish home is Conservative through and through.
However, researchers from the Diffley Partnership think there is a 65 per cent chance of the SNP overturning the Conservatives’ 3,390 majority and winning this seat.
It is worth noting however that the equivalent area at Westminster continues to be Conservative - but would be a microcosm of the fate of the Conservatives overall at this election.
Candidates: SNP - Fatima Joji; Labour - Kate Blake; Conservative - Alexander Burnett; Lib Dems - Jeff Goodhall; Reform UK - Jo Hart.
Argyll and Bute
The Lib Dems are nothing if not ambitious - they are hoping to unseat yet another government minister while continuing their sweep across the Highlands.
This is a more outside chance than the Lib Dems have in other parts of the Highlands, but they are determined to see Public Health Minister Jenni Minto out of a job, while also denying her party leader his 65-seat majority.
Candidates: SNP - Jenni Minto; Labour - Callum George; Conservative - Peter Wallace; Lib Dem - Alan Reid; Reform UK - Amanda Hampsey; Independent - Tommy Macpherson; Independent - Mick Rice.
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