Exclusive:Holyrood election 2026: Inside the knife-edge rural constituency that will be one of the most hotly-contested

It is also one of the most interesting at this election, with the fight on a knife-edge between the SNP and the Lib Dems - with the outcome potentially sealing the fate of John Swinney.

Back in 2021, Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes won this vast constituency with a thumping majority of 15,861, the biggest of MSP in the last parliament.

Fast forward five years and things look quite different.

Will Scheffler, a researcher at the Diffley Partnership, said: “In our simulations, the SNP wins 99 per cent of the time, so it is a shot in the dark for the Lib Dems.

“But it is precarious because Angus Macdonald came out of nowhere to win there in the general election, so Lib Dem confidence cannot be underrated.

Get our revamped Steamie newsletter

“But based on our modelling we think this is a likely SNP hold.”

However the most recent MRP polling by More in Common suggests the Lib Dems have this constituency in the bag, and the party is being very open about their desire to win here.

The Scotsman spoke to both the SNP and Lib Dem candidates in Portree to hear how their campaigns have been going, and both are feeling pretty confident.

“I’m quietly confident, but I’m not taking any votes for granted,” said SNP candidate Eilidh Munro.

“I’ve been having good conversations with people who are really happy with what we’ve been doing with the party.

“There is still progress to be made, but I promise I will listen and work hard.”

She added: “The Lib Dems have a lot more money than we do, but we have a lot more activists knocking on doors and we’ve been to more places.

“The Lib Dems don’t have a positive vision, whereas we are looking at what Scotland could be with independence.”

However, the Lib Dems are equally optimistic.

“I’m quietly confident, but I’m not arrogant or complacent about it,” candidate Andrew Baxter said.

“So much has changed since 2021 - we had just come out of Covid when many thought Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister had done a sterling job, and we had an extremely hard-working, popular member in the form of Kate Forbes.

“But now she is retired and there has been a general election where the Lib Dems did extremely well against all the odds and pulled off a stunning victory.

“People are scunnered with the SNP and more and more are in the market for something different, for a Highland champion. That’s why we’re gaining support and could edge it in this constituency and stop John Swinney from getting a majority.”

The Scotsman went on a tour of this massive constituency to find out what voters on the ground actually want from their new MSP.

It seems no matter where you go in this constituency, the key worry is housing - or rather, the lack of it. This is not surprising, as the Diffley Partnership’s research said this is the third biggest election priority for voters in the Highlands and Islands after the NHS and the cost-of-living.

The trip started in Badenoch - Alastair Dargie from Aviemore Community Council said housing is the single biggest issue in the area.

“We have a huge second home market,” he said. “Some of that is used for short-term lets, and some of it is second homes for people who come on holiday on an occasional basis.

“There’s all the economic drivers that stem from that.

“Hospitality businesses cannot open seven days a week because they can’t get staff, but they can’t get staff because the staff can’t get accommodation.

“There is a lack of affordable housing - Aviemore’s average house price is 30 per cent over the national average while average wages are 30 per cent under.”

This is not the only issue - those living outside Aviemore are cut off from accessible healthcare, and too often patients have to travel to Raigmore Hospital in Inverness for treatment.

Infrastructure is another sore point. “We have no swimming pool that is accessible to actual residents,” Mr Dargie said. “This area has generated the highest proportion of Olympians in the UK because of the skiing and the ice rink, but now we don’t have a full-sized ice rink to continue that legacy.

“Public transport is another issue. Trains are extremely expensive, relatively low-level and don’t work for tourists at peak times, which means there’s a significant over-reliance on cars in Glenmore.

“That needs to be managed, because the solution is not building a massive car park. We need public transport that is frequent and easy to use.”

Badenoch’s other big talking point is the A9 dualling. Laùra Hänsler lives in Kincraig and for the past few years she has been heading up the campaign to get the A9 between Perth and Inverness fully dualled.

She is also standing for election for the newly-formed Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party in the Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch constituency.

Ms Hänsler said: “This is an arterial route, it’s the backbone to our lives up here.

“We need to take away the ambiguous nature of this road and the needless loss of life that we see on this road.

“We’ve got to keep the pressure on because there is no cast iron guarantee in this project whatsoever.”

She believes the central belt bias in Scottish politics means those living in rural parts are “not a priority” as it is considered a “rural backwater”.

Scottish Government data shows 48 people died on this road between 2014 and 2024.

“I literally can’t take much more loss of life on this road,” she said. “Week on week we are seeing someone killed or left with horrific, life-changing injuries, and those are the people that are completely and utterly forgotten about because they have no voice.

“People forget that people are being maimed out on this road and something has to be done.”

The next stop on The Scotsman’s road trip was Skye, where most of the candidates were taking part in a hustings at Portree Gathering Hall.

Most of the questions from the audience focused on housing (including second homes, council tax, council housing, rogue landlords and holiday lets) and energy.

Some of the other big talking points for Skye voters were breaking up Highland Council, healthcare, immigration, drug deaths, independence, infrastructure, ferries and ASN support.

At the hustings each candidate also vowed they would break the party whip if it meant a better outcome for constituents in Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch.

Hospital care on the island has been brought to national attention in recent years after Eilidh Beaton had an allergic reaction at a festival in Portree in 2024 but was unable to access the locked hospital. A nearby lifeboat crew was able to help her instead.

Most urgent care in the island takes place in Broadford, leaving Portree and the north of the island with limited services.

The Scotsman spoke to Fay Thomson from the campaign group Skye NHS-SOS. She said: “Sir Lewis Ritchie was commissioned to do a review of healthcare in Skye and in 2018 he said urgent care, which is covered by GPs in Portree from 8am until 11pm, should be extended to 24 hours.

“We welcomed that and thought we would be getting our services back, but since then things have gone from bad to worse.

“There have been various models, endless meetings, various workstreams, but it’s all been talking shops at huge expense while services are depleted.”

She said the First Minister and the health secretary have made repeated promises to the island, but the “level of incompetence” means residents are “hugely worried”.

Ms Thomson added: “Glendale is the furthest place from a hospital anywhere in the UK.

“A year ago there was a child in Staffin with an allergic reaction, and they called 111 and were told it would be a 35 minute wait, so the child drove to the hospital in Portree.

“They couldn’t get anyone in Portree so they phoned Broadford and were told to meet an ambulance at the end of the road.

“That kind of shambles was well after the incident with Eilidh Beaton.

“Just today I was told of someone being badly bitten by a dog. They went to the GP surgery but couldn't get treated because there were no tetanus injections or wound suturing.

“They had to go to Broadford but they didn’t drive, so someone else had to take them.

“Politicians need to stop wasting time, money and energy on new ideas that simply don’t work when no one knows better than the people living in the community.”

The final stop on The Scotsman’s tour was to Lochaber, where housing and healthcare access were again the big talking points.

John Hutchison from the East Lochaber Community Trust said: “It is not unusual for a student to be given a place at college here and they can’t take their place because they can’t get accommodation.

“People are buying up houses for holiday lets. It’s difficult to criticise people making a living, but having 10 houses on AirBnB is 10 houses out of general circulation.

“I don’t know how young people cope nowadays.”

He added: “We need a new hospital in Fort William - the Belford Hospital was built in the 1960s and needs to be replaced, but NHS Highland has footered about quite a bit.

“It is crumbling and the rooms are the wrong size.

“Kate Forbes was able to get the process going again and there is now a construction date of 2028, but Andrew Baxter is trying to get involved and it sickens me to see that in his advertising.

“The services are fine, but too few clinics actually take place at the Belford Hospital. People often have to go to Inverness for services and that needs to change.”

Other issues that he said are affecting people in Lochaber include upgrading the A82, replacing the Corran ferry, and CalMac sailings to the small isles of Eig, Rum, Canna and Muck.

Voters in Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch go to the polls on May 7.

Candidates:

• Andrew Baxter, Lib Dems
• Helen Crawford, Conservative
• Laùra Hänsler, Alliance to Liberate Scotland
• Isla McCay, Labour
• Eilidh Munro, SNP
• Jon Whitton, Reform UK