Exclusive:Revealed: How Scottish Labour hopes it can turn tables on SNP and snatch power in Holyrood election
Anas Sarwar is set to effectively launch his campaign to become first minister on Monday
Scottish Labour will harness a “cutting edge data-driven” strategy to try to oust the SNP from power in May as Anas Sarwar vows to deliver the “biggest and most ambitious political campaign that Scotland has ever seen”.
The party, which is lagging behind the SNP in national polling, will exploit its well-established ground game across Scotland - using a substantial budget for polished online tools to claw back ground in a bid to secure power in May.
Mr Sarwar will effectively launch Labour’s campaign on Monday with a pitch to the public over what he will claim is the SNP’s inability to “fix the basics”.
But the SNP accused Labour of peddling “desperate nonsense” and being unable to “put Scotland’s interests first”.
READ MORE: John Swinney keeping election focus on independence and energy will be fatal for Anas Sarwar
Labour is poised to present Mr Sarwar to the public as more first ministerial and “warmer” than Mr Swinney, while the party is expected to focus on a perception the SNP has "essentially abandoned Scotland’s most important urban conurbations”, with the party having lost heavyweight names who could capture support across the Central Belt.
Speaking to Scotland on Sunday, Mr Sawar insisted Monday’s keynote speech will outline “quite clearly how we are going to deliver that biggest and most ambitious political campaign that Scotland has ever seen”.
He added: “That will be in terms of how it's resourced, how it is run, the offer we will make, how we will deliver that message both on the streets and on other platforms.
“That's something that enthuses and excites me.”
“I think it's pretty clear there is a hunger and a demand for something different in Scotland.
“I think the challenge we've had over the course of the last year is that in the absence of people thinking about the election in May 2026, the time has been spent talking about the rights and wrongs of a UK Labour government.”
National polling has put Labour way behind the SNP which is forecast to be the biggest party at May’s election, with some studies placing Mr Sarwar’s party behind Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in third place.
It is understood Labour chiefs will exploit Mr Swinney’s poor track record at the ballot box, having been overwhelmed by Labour in the 2024 general election in difficult circumstances, while also performing poorly during his previous stint as SNP leader - flopping at the 2001 UK election and 2003 Holyrood election.
Mr Sarwar likened Mr Swinney to a well-known meme of Homer Simpson having “retreated into a hedge”.
He added: “John Swinney has gone into the hedge over the last two years thinking how do I hide from Scotland and hope people don't think about our own government and the choice they've got to make.
READ MORE: Shouty Swinney ends year with mudslinging FMQs as SNP's record takes back seat at Holyrood
“The challenge is he's now going to get dragged out of that hedge and it's going to be a straight choice between me and John Swinney. And I relish that opportunity.”
Before the short official election campaign kicks off in March, Scottish Labour will spend the next three months honing a message over the consequences of “rewarding the SNP” for past failures by allowing them to retain power.
It is understood Scottish Labour will focus in the coming weeks and months on the SNP’s perceived inability to “fix the basics”.
The senior party source said the campaign will “tap into the frustration, across the political spectrum, that nothing works”.
Last summer, the SNP suffered a shock defeat in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Holyrood by-election, with Labour’s Davy Russell securing victory, despite Mr Swinney in the run-up to polling day inaccurately telling the public it was a two-horse race between the SNP and Reform.
Labour’s strategy this time around will utilise what worked in the by-election and in the 2024 UK general election including digital targeting, messaging and “how do we grab attention”.
One Labour MSP said that his party securing victory in May “is not as unlikely as the national polls would have you believe”.
They added: “No-one is denying the polling doesn’t look great, but I think our campaign will be fought better than the Nats.
“Our ground game is now much stronger than the SNP and once the agenda turns to devolved issues and the government’s record, I think we will see those polls begin to tighten, particularly at a constituency level.”
Scottish Labour has developed a polished ground operation through large-scale polling alongside plenty of door knocking and focus groups - with the party’s data set pre-dating Tony Blair’s leadership - an asset none of its rivals have for Scotland on the same scale.
The senior party source said: “Some of this is about new technology - how you tie digital campaigning to the doorstep - about everything you say, from Anas’s speech on Monday to leaflets going through doors - all reflecting a consistent message or a message that’s convincing.
“Some of it is quite old school and some of it is cutting edge data-driven.”
A lack of funding for the SNP will likely hamper its ability to pull off big set pieces, while Labour bosses believe their rivals could even struggle to deliver large-scale print runs of election material.
The SNP will attempt to make May’s Holyrood election about Westminster, independence and a referendum on Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership, despite none of those issues officially on the ballot box for a devolved parliament election.
“There hasn’t been a Holyrood election yet successfully fought exclusively on the idea that a Westminster government is bad”, the senior Labour insider said.
“It’s just not a convincing argument to the people of Scotland. This isn’t an election about Keir Starmer or Rachel Reeves. If people want to vote to get rid of Keir Starmer or Rachel Reeves they will have that opportunity. This is an election about who delivers schools, hospitals and who is the first minister of Scotland.
“Ultimately, it’s the decision for the people of Scotland about what they make the election about. I think the people of Scotland will make the election about public services in Scotland. That means it’s more likely to be on our turf than the SNP’s.”
SNP MP Pete Wishart said: “Quite frankly, there is a reason Scottish Labour find themselves polling fourth in Scotland and it is desperate nonsense like this.
“John Swinney is relentlessly focused on the priorities of the people of Scotland meanwhile Anas Sarwar finds himself defending indefensible decisions by his Labour Party leader, Keir Starmer, time and time again.”
He added: “While chancer Anas Sarwar screams into the void, the people of Scotland know John Swinney will put Scotland’s interests first at every turn - something Scottish Labour has shown themselves entirely unable to do as Keir Starmer has hammered Scottish industry and allowed the cost-of-living crisis to hit Scottish families harder than ever before.
“In May, Scots will have the chance to vote for a positive vision through a fresh start through independence – only a vote for the SNP can secure that future.”
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