John Swinney keeping election focus on independence and energy will be fatal for Anas Sarwar

It is still very early days. But it is becoming apparent that the two major issues that seem likely to shape May’s Holyrood election appear to be completely out of the gift of the Scottish Parliament. The irony is off the charts.

Immigration, fuelled by scaremongering and misinformation spread by Nigel Farage, will likely continue to be talked about by politicians up until election day, while the key, mostly-reserved, policy area of Scotland’s energy future is fast-becoming the big political football.

The First Minister used his first keynote pre-election speech, some five months out from polling day, to stress that “it’s Scotland’s energy”, arguing that an independent nation should reap the benefits that the oil and gas boom in the 1970s never provided.

READ MORE: John Swinney vows SNP will cut energy bills by one third with independence

Moving through the decades, Mr Swinney is framing Keir Starmer and the Labour party as a return to Thatcherism.

“He will enter our national story as a second Thatcher, a second destroyer of industry, a second destroyer of communities, and Scotland will not forget,” Mr Swinney insisted.

It’s only a matter of time before the SNP media machine publishes images of Sir Keir’s face merged with Thatcher’s.

Framing Labour and Anas Sarwar as repeating the damage caused by Thatcher to Scotland’s and the UK’s industrial heartlands in the 1980s is a smart move from the SNP leader - and there is palpable anger from industries over recent events and policies. Even though the Scottish Government must take some of the blame, the vast majority of responsibility lies at Westminster.

“Scotland’s oil” was the SNP’s slogan in the 1970s and the party is keen to repeat that narrative that Scotland watches on glumly as the economic benefits are enjoyed in London, with the renewables revolution.

But Mr Swinney has questions to answer over his key vow within his energy paper and keynote address - claiming, without any figures, that with independence, Scottish households could see their energy bills cut by up to a third.

You only need to ask the Labour UK government that this is easier said than done.

It would be unfair to compare some of the nonsense Mr Farage has unleashed in an attempt to grab attention in Scotland and across the UK with Mr Swinney’s lack of working or explanation on a key energy bills vow, but the commitment is one steeped in populism.

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May’s election appears to be Mr Swinney’s to lose, given the polling and the loss of support Labour has suffered since the UK general election. But as we get closer to voting day, the public will want details on how big commitments and pledges will be delivered. This could be the undoing, at least partially, of Reform.

For Mr Sarwar, while the Scottish Labour leader will likely simply roll his eyes at Mr Swinney’s energy bills vow, he will be utterly frustrated if the spotlight keeps shining on issues reserved to Westminster, rather than the SNP’s record in government. On Monday, Scottish Labour’s attempt at launching a report into the NHS was overshadowed by the SNP’s energy event which took place in the same city at the same time.

He has repeatedly insisted that this election is about the Scottish Parliament and devolved issues. But sadly for Mr Sarwar, it is not up to him what motivates people to vote.

Frustration over his government’s record at Westminster has already done his chances of victory in May a huge amount of damage. A failure to make the NHS the big talking point ahead of the election would be fatal.