Swinney warned SNP Cabinet net zero would increase fuel poverty despite renewables bills vow
John Swinney made the admission while he was one of Alex Salmond’s cabinet secretaries and is revealed just weeks after he claimed the SNP could cut bills with independence
John Swinney warned Alex Salmond’s Cabinet that a net zero strategy was “likely to result in levels of fuel poverty being higher”, new Cabinet papers have revealed.
The admission in 2009 by the first minister, then Mr Salmond’s finance, employment and sustainable growth secretary, came as he touted charging road users and car parking schemes to cut transport emissions in Scotland.
Last month, Mr Swinney used a keynote speech as SNP leader to claim that by ramping up renewable energy, Scots could see their energy bills cut by up to one third if Scotland votes for independence. Although renewable energy is one of the cheapest forms of energy, there is no evidence bills could be cut by a third in an independent Scotland.
But in a briefing paper drawn up by Mr Swinney in February 2009, sent to Mr Salmond and his Cabinet, Mr Swinney warned his colleagues that “there will be some tensions between achieving the sustainability target and achieving some other purpose targets”.
He warned over advice showing a “likely increase in fuel prices” and raised the alarm that “measures to achieve reductions in emissions are likely to result in levels of fuel poverty being higher than they would otherwise have been”.
Mr Swinney told the Cabinet that net zero will produce further “tensions” including “economic growth”.
He added: “There will be opportunities to grow the economy, for example through the development of technologies related to emissions reduction with the potential for global deployment.
“There will also be tensions where a necessary development has the consequence of increasing emissions or where a less emission intensive option is more expensive.”
The First Minister told his SNP colleagues that the costs of cutting emissions “will not be known” to the Scottish Government “until we have developed the package of policy options and determined the level of government expenditure which they involve”.
The Scottish Government has not yet put a cost on net zero, although the potential price of inaction will outweigh the funding required to cut emissions.
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But in 2009, Mr Swinney warned, following the financial crash, and “because we lack some of the levers required, including borrowing powers…there is a risk that we may face considerable difficulties in delivering at a Scottish level the necessary trajectory in carbon emission reductions needed to meet the targets” that were being suggested by independent advisers, the Climate Change Committee, at the time.
Mr Swinney also set out some “examples of areas in which new approaches could help reduce emissions”.
The First Minister highlighted transport, stressing that “the main mechanism available to achieve cuts…fiscal means such as fuel duty and car tax, are very much in the hands of the UK government”.
But he added: “Other options include road pricing, actions around par parking regulation and charges to encourage car sharing, provision of universal school buses, reduced national speed limits, electrically powered vehicles.”
The SNP government has struggled to significantly cut transport emissions and has, so far, shied away from road user charging. While MSPs agreed the principle of a workplace parking levy in 2019, no Scottish local authority has pressed ahead with plans due to a lack of public appetite.
Mr Swinney highlighted methods of cutting emissions in homes, stressing that “matters such as increased insulation are under active consideration and under particular focus as a result of Green Party views on the Scottish Government budget priorities”.
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In November, Mr Swinney’s government confirmed it was shelving legislative plans to help the shift from fossil fuel gas boilers to renewable heating systems such as heat pumps and district heating until after May’s election - despite bringing forward the plans in partnership with the Greens.
In 2009, Mr Swinney told his government colleagues that “difficulties lie in dependence on coal and gas for a significant proportion of electricity generation” as well as “significant efficiency losses through the failure to develop sustainable heating systems and in poor insulation domestic households”.
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