John Curtice suggests polling lifeline as Labour's Anas Sarwar confronted by 'impossible' task

That is the latest assessment by polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice, who predicts the SNP could mop up the majority of the constituency seats in next year’s Holyrood election.

A total of 73 of the 129 seats up for grabs in the Scottish Parliament election are constituency seats, and in the 2021 election the SNP won 62 of these.

Mr Sarwar has made no secret of his desire to become first minister in 2026. On Monday, he said his government would keep policies such as free prescriptions and free university tuition.

But despite polling neck-and-neck with the SNP last summer, Labour have slipped back in recent surveys to where they were in 2021.

This is partly due to the UK Labour government’s popularity plummeting, and due to First Minister John Swinney stabilising the SNP government in Scotland.

Prof Curtice told the BBC: “[Mr Sarwar] announced yesterday that a Labour administration would retain many free things in Scotland like the child payment and free prescriptions.

“I suspect this is a realisation that given the UK Labour government summarily got rid of heating allowances for most UK pensioners, they are at risk of jibes from the SNP that you cannot trust Scottish Labour with other distinctive benefits Scotland enjoys.

“This is an indication of Anas Sarwar’s optimism for Labour from six months ago in the wake of the revival north and south of the Border at the general election.

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“That optimism has long since disappeared as the Labour government’s popularity has fallen away remarkably quickly. They are struggling to remain ahead of Reform in the UK-wide opinion polls.”

Prof Curtice said the polls were predicting two scenarios, neither of which were good news for Mr Sarwar and the Scottish Labour Party.

The first scenario is a pro-independence majority, as the SNP is polling at 37 per cent, which could see them “mop up most of the constituency seats”, along with the Greens getting a good return on the list vote.

The second scenario would be if the SNP and Greens fall short of a majority and are outnumbered by the pro-unionist parties in Holyrood.

However, Prof Curtice said “forming a government would be difficult” in this situation because of Reform.

Nigel Farage’s Reform is running at 13 per cent in the Scottish opinion polls, which if realised at next year’s election would result in 12 MSPs being elected.

However, Prof Curtice said the other unionist parties in Scotland were unlikely to want to do a deal with Reform, making that option almost “impossible”.

Last week Mr Sarwar ruled out an official coalition with Reform, but said he was open to working with the party on a case-by-case basis, saying he was “open to good ideas”.

Prof Curtice said: “The path to Sarwar gaining the keys to Bute House is not easy, but not impossible, if the UK government’s popularity improves over the next 12 months.

“The doubts people still have about the Scottish Government - although those doubts are not as big as the record of the UK government - if those doubts are assuaged, some people who voted Labour last July who have defected may come back.”