Exclusive:Anas Sarwar admits UK Labour denting Scottish election chances - but insists he can win in 2026
Anas Sarwar has acknowledged Sir Keir Starmer’s government might be denting his Bute House chances after admitting the Scottish public is "thinking about politics in the frame of the UK" - but has insisted he can still complete his dream of becoming Scotland’s next first minister.
But the Scottish Labour leader has been accused of “living in a parallel universe” after refusing to acknowledge his UK government party colleagues in Westminster are continuing austerity amid looming public spending cuts.
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Downing Street has insisted nothing is “off the table” over where to wield the axe after Sir Keir said the approach to spending cuts would be “ruthless”.
First Minister John Swinney told The Scotsman last week that he was concerned the economic climate could have a detrimental impact on the Scottish Government’s longer-term spending review, due to be carried out before the summer.
The admission from Mr Sarwar, in comments to The Scotsman, that the unpopularity of the UK government is impacting his popularity, comes after a poll indicated Scottish Labour has lost all ground over the SNP it had gained since the 2021 election when it failed to improve on third place.
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Hide AdHowever, ironically, the poll, which indicates Labour would secure just 24 MSPs if a Holyrood election was called, suggests Mr Sarwar could still become the next first minister if all unionist parties, including Nigel Farage’s Reform - forecast to win 15 seats - backed Mr Sarwar to remove the SNP from office.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice said the poll showed the prospect of Mr Sarwar becoming the next first minister had “diminished markedly”.
During July’s general election campaign, Mr Sarwar forthrightly declared during a leaders’ debate with Mr Swinney there will be “no austerity under Labour”, daring the First Minister to “read my lips”.


But with deep spending cuts and a potentially painful spending review for the Scottish Government ahead, it has been difficult for Mr Sarwar’s insistence there is no austerity coming from Westminster to remain credible.
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Hide AdAsked by The Scotsman if he would now acknowledge the Labour UK government was continuing some of the austerity implemented under the Conservatives, Mr Sarwar instead pointed to “£5.2 billion more spending for the Scottish Government”, which Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered to Holyrood for this financial year and the 2025/26 fiscal period.
READ MORE: Anas Sarwar to harness Andy Burnham to 'do devolution better' if Labour win power in 2026
He said: “If they want to pretend that’s austerity, then they need to buy a dictionary - £5.2bn means more money for Scotland’s NHS, it means more money for Scotland’s schools.
“The problem we have in Scotland is, because of an incompetent government, I fear that they will squander the opportunity. That’s why we need a change in direction in 2026.”
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Pressed again over whether he would acknowledge spending cuts are on the horizon from Westminster, the Scottish Labour leader said: “I think there’s a difference between going through a comprehensive spending review process and looking at what departments within England are having to do in order to reshape their priorities.
“This is very different to the situation we have here in Scotland where £5.2bn of additional money is coming to the Scottish Government to spend. But they aren’t looking at how they want to spend that differently. Instead, they want to keep spending it the same way, wasting the opportunity and having poor outcomes in Scotland. That’s the wrong approach.”
Pressed over the impact of unpopular decisions made by his party colleagues in Westminster on his polling with the Scottish public, Mr Sarwar repeated his previous conclusion that Labour ministers had suffered from “teething problems”.
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Hide AdHe said: “It was always going to be a difficult job for them coming in and taking over the mess that was left by the Tories - fixing those fundamentals and moving forward.


“I know that the Prime Minister, the Chancellor and the entire UK government is determined to deliver on the commitments made in the election and to take our country forward.”
But he has now suggested the unpopularity of decisions taken by his colleagues was damaging his chances of success in 2026.
Mr Sarwar said: “What I think is happening here in Scotland is, undoubtedly, there is a position now where people are thinking about politics in the frame of the UK.
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Hide Ad“I think once we get into the phase of politics where people are thinking about what's happening here in Scotland, I’m confident we can and will win the election in 2026.”
The Scottish Labour leader remains adamant voters will pick him in a choice between allowing the SNP to continue in office or a ‘new direction’, under his party.
He said: “John Swinney will want to pretend that the choice in May 2026 is whether you want to protest against the UK Labour government or protest against the UK.


“What people across the country will see is 2026 as a choice of who governs in Scotland and what direction we take in Scotland.”
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Hide AdMr Sarwar stressed Labour “were a mile behind the SNP when I took on this job” almost four years ago.
He said: “People would have laughed at the suggestion that we could beat the SNP. We won and we won overwhelmingly last year and we have got work to do to make sure that we win next year.
“Anyone that knows me, even my biggest critic, would accept that I am not someone that fears hard work. The same level of energy and humility that we have demonstrated in the last four years will continue through that.
“I do believe this country needs a new direction and I believe only Scottish Labour can deliver it.”
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Hide AdSNP MSP Rona Mackay said: "It has been obvious for some time that Anas Sarwar holds no sway over his bosses at Westminster, but it increasingly looks like he is living in a parallel universe from the rest of us.
"To double-down on his pledge of 'no austerity under Labour' in the same week that both the Prime Minister and Chancellor have refused to rule out making severe spending cuts in the forthcoming spending review shows just how far out of touch Sarwar is with his leaders in Westminster.
"Anas Sarwar and the Labour Party must take responsibility for their actions, including the hugely damaging increase in National Insurance, and come clean on the scale of planned cuts.”
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