How the Holyrood election campaign failed to ignite Scotland
It has been dubbed the ‘meh election’, but there may yet be drama ahead
It has become something of a campaign cliché. Across Scotland, voters are scunnered, disconnected and disillusioned.
The Holyrood election failed to set the heather alight, and turnout today is expected to be relatively low, with perhaps just under half of Scots opting to stay home.
Polls show the SNP has lost around one in four of its 2021 voters, but is on course to remain by far the largest party.
Scottish Labour - battered and bruised by the unpopularity of the UK government - is vying for second place with Reform UK.
READ MORE: Holyrood election 2026: A quarter of Scots could still change their mind on the eve of polling day
Many of the campaign’s more memorable moments involved Nigel Farage’s party.
It engaged in a bitter spat with Scottish Labour, with both parties throwing mud and branding the other liars. The atmosphere in the next parliamentary term may prove poisonous.
Meanwhile, jaws hit the floor when Malcolm Offord, the leader of Reform UK in Scotland, revealed he owns six houses, five cars and six boats during a live TV debate. First Minister John Swinney accused him of "tone-deaf" bragging.
But overall, this was a campaign that sometimes felt like it was taking place in a self-contained bubble, with everyone else going about their lives, content to ignore it.
Luke Tryl, executive director of the polling company More in Common, dubbed it the “meh election”.
“The more people find out about the leaders, the more negative they feel towards them,” said the pollster Mark Diffley. “That’s it in a nutshell really.”
There may yet be some drama when the votes are counted on Friday, however, and there could be some unexpected results.
“There’s a lot of seats that are actually very, very close, so there’s that sense that there’s still all to play for,” said one senior SNP figure.
They insisted the party had been given a warm reception on the doors.
"We don't have a 'winter fuel payment' hanging over us, or a Peter Mandelson - things that are going to cause people to slam the door in your face," they said, referring to rows affecting the UK Labour government.
Ailsa Henderson, professor of political science at the University of Edinburgh, said a low turnout could benefit parties with older voters, such as Reform or the Scottish Conservatives.
There will also be regional variations. "It could mean that we are then seeing a number of constituencies falling well below 50 per cent turnout, especially in Glasgow," she said.
On Wednesday morning, Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay - whose party is expected to be eaten alive by Reform UK - gathered his activists on Calton Hill for a final campaign media call.
”There’s a sense of futility sometimes that nothing that you can do can make a difference, but there really, really is,” he said. “This is why it’s so absolutely critical that people do get out to vote.
“They can stop John Swinney’s majority that he’s arrogantly telling people he’s got in the bag.”
He added: “You don’t need to accept the outcome that some people are saying is nailed on. It really isn’t. That’s the beauty and power of democracy.”
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