Holyrood election 2026: A quarter of Scots could still change their mind on the eve of polling day
A new poll on the eve of the election projects the SNP to win comfortably - but fall short of an outright majority
Eleventh hour polling suggests up to a quarter of Scottish voters could change their mind before going to the ballot box on Thursday.
An Ipsos poll on the eve of the Holyrood election suggests the SNP is still on course to win comfortably despite its vote share being down four points since the start of the campaign. It also warns the race for second place is still too close to call.
The poll puts the SNP on 57 seats, eight short of the 65 seats needed for an outright majority.
However, the projections are much tighter in the race for second place, with Reform UK projected to win 20 seats, the Scottish Greens on 18, and Scottish Labour on 15.
It would leave the Scottish Lib Dems on 11, pushing the Scottish Conservatives down to being the smallest party on just eight seats.
Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said: “Our final poll of this Holyrood election campaign may dent the SNP’s confidence in achieving its hoped-for majority, since it shows the party’s share of the vote falling back slightly on both constituency and regional votes.
“Meanwhile the race for second place in voting intentions looks too close to call with Scottish Labour narrowly ahead of Reform on the constituency vote but Reform outpacing Labour on the regional list vote - where the Greens also appear to be in contention, if they can get their voters to turn out.”
She added: “This could be the worst ever performance at a Scottish election for both Labour and the Conservatives if these numbers are replicated on polling day.
“But with one in four voters still saying they may yet change their mind, all the parties still have something to play for on the final day of campaigning.”
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