Hamilton by-election result: Sir John Curtice's warning for Anas Sarwar and how he rates Reform vote surge
Labour has won the Hamilton by-election - but Professor Sir John Curtice is far from convinced it means Anas Sarwar will become the next first minister.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice says Scottish Labour’s by-election victory does not mean Anas Sarwar will be the next first minister.
Labour’s Davy Russell was victorious in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, coming away with 31.5 per cent of the vote.
However, this is down from the 33.6 per cent share of the vote the party gained in this constituency back in 2021. In that election, Labour came second.
Mr Sarwar has already lauded the victory as the first step on the road to electing a Labour government at next year’s Scottish Parliament election - a move that would see him becoming first minister.
But Prof Curtice has warned of caution in this aspiration, saying the SNP was still likely to be the largest party in Scotland after the 2026 election.
Curtice on Labour’s fortunes
Speaking to the BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Prof Curtice said: “This was an election for a seat last contested in 2021 and that is frankly now a long time ago.
“The SNP then got nearly half the vote and Labour got little more than a fifth. Last year the Labour Party came first in Scotland, five points ahead of the SNP and the SNP was in trouble.
“If you take in the opinion polls, what’s happened in Hamilton, and the ups and downs in Labour and SNP support since 2021, we see Labour at 31 per cent and the SNP at 31 per cent.
“So the contest always looked to be close and that’s what’s been proven in the end. Labour has done slightly better and the SNP slightly worse, but there is nothing in the result to suggest Labour has turned around the polls.
“But equally what’s true is there are no signs in this result that the SNP are making much progress in reversing the losses from last year.
“The recent message from opinion polls are the SNP is running at just over 30 per cent, Labour is around 20 per cent, so it seems a reasonable expectation that such a result would not mean Anas Sarwar is Scotland’s next first minister.”
What Curtice says about the result for Reform
Prof Curtice said the results also showed Reform UK is “making political weather north of the Border”.
The polling expert said the by-election result could not be seen as a victory for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, mainly because of how well Reform UK fared.
Writing in The Times, Prof Curtice said: “Once again it is Reform’s political prospects that now look brighter.
“As in the English local elections, so in Hamilton the party outperformed its current standing in the polls, winning as much as 26 per cent of the vote.
“Hitherto politicians in Scotland have comforted themselves with the thought that Nigel Farage could never make the political weather in a country that voted against Brexit and which seems less concerned about immigration.
“However, as in the rest of the UK, that is not a thought that is credible any more.”
Mr Farage’s party came third in the Hamilton by-election with 26.2 per cent of the vote - well above the 19 per cent they are sitting at in the national polls for Scotland.
It is estimated around one in four Conservative voters in Scotland from last year’s general election have switched to Reform, along with one in six Labour voters.
Prof Curtice said: “Reform UK is damaging both of the principal unionist parties in Scotland.
“In this instance, it was not enough to save the SNP’s bacon. But across Scotland there is still the likely prospect that the SNP will be the largest party in the next Holyrood election, but much diminished and much less powerful than the one currently occupying the debating chamber.”
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