Why Tories need to learn from forgotten champion John Major and his shock election win
In 1992, it looked like Labour was coasting to a general election victory, but John Major found a way to win and his tactics have a lesson for Kemi Badenoch’s Tories
As Conservatives gather for their party conference, they could be forgiven if the mood was somewhat funereal. The latest UK polls put the Tories in third place, with about half the level of backing for Reform, and in danger of falling behind the Liberal Democrats. If their slump over the past six months continues, they could even find themselves behind the Greens.
The ‘world’s most successful political party’ faces an existential threat. However, the current political volatility offers hope that, if they can find a way to connect with voters, their fortunes might yet change.
In 1992, after 13 years of Conservative government and with ‘Iron Lady’ Margaret Thatcher replaced by ‘Grey Man’ John Major, Labour seemed to be coasting to victory. Just a week before the election, one poll put Neil Kinnock’s party seven percentage points ahead.
Major played a blinder
However, the notorious Sheffield Rally – a US-style event at which Kinnock triumphantly cried out “We're Alright! We're Alright!” – was later described as the moment Labour snatched “defeat from the jaws of victory”.
While Kinnock made mistakes that undermined efforts to present him as a serious politician, Major quietly played a blinder, famously getting on a soapbox and talking to people in the street. While the result was often chaotic, it helped foster an image of an honest, down-to-earth, trustworthy politician.
The campaign focussed heavily on Labour’s economic policies: “Labour’s tax bombshell” and the “double whammy” of “more taxes” and “higher prices”. The Conservatives won comfortably, beating Labour by 2.5 million votes.
Reform bound to make mistakes
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has been struggling to make the political weather in a similar way to Major early in the ’92 campaign, but he found an effective way to get through to people, and she needs to do that same, on a soapbox or not, to counter Farage’s ‘ordinary man in the pub’ image.
She also needs to start talking more about the economy and ordinary, decent Conservative values, in a way that could prove attractive to disaffected Labour voters, particularly if Keir Starmer’s woes continue, while also painting Reform as inexperienced and unserious, and thereby winning back some Tory defectors.
Reform are bound to make mistakes and some supporters may get cold feet about the impact of a Nigel Farage-led government on mortgage rates and the like. John Major might be an unlikely champion, but he found a strategy that worked and, right now, Badenoch’s approach is failing badly.
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