Poll: Reform ahead of Labour in Holyrood as Scots back deportations

A Norstat poll for The Sunday Times found Nigel Farage’s party is now ahead of Scottish Labour on the constituency vote, and tied on the regional list vote, while the SNP is on course to remain comfortably the largest party next May.

However, seat calculations by Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, show Labour would still become the second largest party at Holyrood under such a result due to the regional distribution of votes, with 20 MSPs to Reform’s 19.

Elsewhere, the poll found 56 per cent of Scots believe immigration numbers are too high.

Asked whether they backed mass detention and deportations of those who arrive in the UK without permission, 60 per cent said they supported this while 23 per cent were opposed.

Mr Farage told The Sunday Times: "Reform UK are making extraordinary progress in Scotland. I am very proud of our small, dedicated team. There is a lot more to come."

Sir John said: “The poll shows that concern about immigration in Scotland is much higher than it was a few years ago.

“In response to a similarly worded question, in 2018 YouGov found that 39 per cent reckoned that immigration into Scotland was too high; now the figure stands at 56 per cent.

“However, those who voted SNP last year are least likely to feel that immigration is too high — only 36 per cent express that view.

“If Reform do succeed in making immigration a key issue, it will be the other unionist parties that would seem to have most to lose.”

Norstat polled 1,010 Scottish voters between September 22 and 25. It found 34 per cent are planning to vote for the SNP with their constituency vote, while 20 per cent say they will back Reform and 17 per cent Labour.

On the more proportional regional list, the SNP is on 29 per cent, while Reform and Labour are tied on 18 per cent. The Scottish Tories are on just 10 per cent for the constituency vote and 13 per cent for the regional list, while the Scottish Liberal Democrats are on 11 per cent and 10 per cent respectively, and the Greens 7 per cent and 8 per cent.

Under Sir John’s calculations, this would see the SNP secure 59 seats, six short of a majority, with Labour returning 20 MSPs and Reform 19. The Tories would be on 14 and the Scottish Liberal Democrats 10, with the Greens winning seven.