Why SNP's response to Scotland's £26.5 billion deficit shows they're not serious about independence
Andrew Wilson’s 2018 report on the economics of Scottish independence was a serious piece of work that now serves to highlight the SNP’s current lack of credibility on the subject
In 2018, the ‘Sustainable Growth Commission’, chaired by former SNP MP Andrew Wilson, published a report on an independent Scotland’s economic options to widespread praise for the rigour of its analysis.
David Phillips, of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, commended the authors for being honest about “the challenging public finance position an independent Scotland would start life with”, while adding that, in his view, the figures showed independence would lead to ten years of austerity.
The Fraser of Allander Institute, which said the report “makes sober reading”, welcomed the acceptance of the independent Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (Gers) figures as “the appropriate assessment of Scotland’s current fiscal position”, saying this “hopefully dispels any remaining myths around Gers”.
A Herculean task
Unexpectedly, the Commission’s biggest critics turned out to be fellow nationalists who liked their myths. They may wish to look away now.
For, according to the new Gers, Scotland’s fiscal deficit rose by £5.1 billion to £26.5bn in 2024/25, following a £0.8bn fall in North Sea revenues and a £6.2bn increase in public spending. Scots now benefit from public spending of £2,669 more per person than south of the border.
This deficit represents 11.7 per cent of our GDP, which would make the Growth Commission’s target of cutting an independent Scotland’s deficit to below 3 per cent within ten years – from an estimated 6 per cent – a Herculean task.
Rather than address these cold, hard facts, SNP Finance Secretary Shona Robison tried to blame Westminster for Scotland’s problems and claimed “the Gers statistics reflect only the current constitutional arrangements... not an independent Scotland with its own policy”. In other words, the magic wand of independence will make our problems disappear.
It was a far cry from the bravery of Andrew Wilson, an economist, in addressing the realities of leaving the UK, while making the argument that although it will take “significant effort... that effort will be worth it”.
If independence is ever achieved on the basis of myths and magic wands, pity us all as our fledgling government is forced to slash spending and raise taxes by billions just to avoid outright economic collapse.
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