John Swinney's indy plan feels like deja vu, but it's more realistic than Nicola Sturgeon's 'de-facto' vote

Despite calls from a minority within the independence movement for a more extreme blueprint, the SNP leader is taking a leaf out of the book of Alex Salmond’s strategy that secured the 2014 referendum.

Two things have been made clear by Mr Swinney. First, he wont be revisiting the hair-raising prospect of a de facto referendum that Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf flirted with - which demanded action from the UK government if pro-independence parties secure a majority of votes cast at a Holyrood or Westminster election.

Secondly, the First Minister is aiming high at next year’s crunch Holyrood election. Mr Swinney has insisted, with good reason, that Keir Starmer’s UK government, like David Cameron’s administration, will be unable to refute a mandate for a re-run of the 2014 vote if the SNP can secure a Scottish Parliament majority of MSPs.

READ MORE: John Swinney has left Scottish independence alone for 12 months - here's why he is talking about indyref again

This feat has only been achieved by the SNP once before, under Mr Salmond in 2011, and paved the way for the first independence referendum. But Scottish politics has shifted considerably since Ms Sturgeon’s resignation in 2023.

Over the last decade, the story of Holyrood elections has been how much the SNP can win by and if the party can snatch a majority. Now, the bigger question is, realistically, can the SNP hold onto power.

Polling suggests that the SNP is on course to be the biggest party at next year’s election, but questions remain over who will be able to form a government. There is a long way to go and plenty can and will happen between now and May.

The current pro-independence majority, secured by the performance of the SNP and the Scottish Greens at the last Holyrood election, has been brushed aside by the UK government as providing a mandate for a referendum despite consistent claims by SNP ministers.

READ MORE: John Swinney's first year as FM was defined by opponents' mistakes - now he's on his own

The elephant in the room for Mr Swinney is that while another pro-independence majority is a likely outcome from next year’s Holyrood election, an SNP majority is a near-impossible prospect. Placing his indy bet on the outsider is a huge risk.

A senior source said the Scottish Government still believes a pro-independence majority "should" provide a democratic mandate for another referendum. But there is an acceptance that the UK government does not see it that way.

The source added: "We are not in any way resiling from that [previous] position, but it is a reaction to reality.”

READ MORE: Why independence will once again be 'central' to SNP's 2026 election campaign

It would be utterly tone deaf and unsustainable for the UK Labour government to ignore next year’s Holyrood election returning a majority of SNP MSPs as a mandate for a second independent referendum. But it is unlikely Labour ministers will be losing much sleep over that prospect playing out in May.

Mr Swinney, to his credit, has done what his predecessors have failed to do in setting out a realistic and sensible route to independence.

Maybe the SNP leader is hoping his insistence his party will need to pull off an incredible victory to kickstart the indy campaign will galvanise support at next year’s election. But John the realist will be back to square one if, as expected, he or someone else is sharing power at Holyrood once again.