Why SNP may not want independence referendum even if Reform and Keir Starmer help them win big in May
The rise of Reform is the best thing to happen to John Swinney since Keir Starmer became Prime Minister
Just before the Gorton and Denton by-election, I came across a high-profile Reform figure who, it’s fair to say, wasn’t especially pleased to see me. I’ll not name names because he doesn’t need the publicity, but he was a lot friendlier the last time we met.
Something I’ve written? Boo hoo. But our exchange was long enough for me to be told that in May’s Scottish Parliament election a vote for Labour or the Conservatives was a wasted vote, the clear inference being that to beat the SNP the only alternative was to back Reform.
For a party which has yet to reveal any substantial policies for responsibilities devolved to Holyrood – apart from shutting Catholic schools (very pro choice…) – that would be a rather premature decision. And from the latest poll, it seems the appeal of what is effectively a rag-tag bunch of disaffected ex-Tories, whose prams are devoid of toys, is beginning to wear thin.
Tories have a lot of work to do
The Ipsos Scotland survey conducted last week put Reform third on the constituency vote on 16 per cent, behind the SNP (36 per cent) and Labour (20 per cent), but fourth on the regional list on 14 per cent, with the Greens in the bronze position on 16 behind Labour (19) and the SNP (26). The SNP would still be by far the biggest party with 60 seats.
With the Conservatives running at 9 per cent on the constituency and 11 on the list, leader Russell Findlay has an enormous amount of work to do and virtually no time left to make a meaningful difference. But on this latest showing, a Reform vote is no more a waste or otherwise than one for any other opposition party.
Perhaps that’s unfair because by now it’s crystal clear that far from halting the SNP in its tracks, the rise of Reform is the best thing to have happened to First Minister John Swinney since Sir Keir Starmer became Prime Minister.
Small comfort for Sarwar
Although 20 seats isn’t much, Labour leader Anas Sarwar might be breathing a little easier than after last week’s “mega survey” of nearly 3,000 voters by leading analysts Stonehaven predicted his party was on the brink of collapsing to 15 seats, with Reform second on 25 behind a quite stunning overall majority for the SNP on 67. But it’s very small comfort for someone who only 18 months ago was measuring for curtains in Bute House.
With the bookies’ odds on the SNP being the biggest party after May running at a pointless 1-33, Anas Sarwar’s schtick about being the new First Minister has as much credibility as Rishi Sunak’s bid to sell himself as the change candidate at the 2024 general election, even if his approach was far removed from the madcap reigns of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.
So strong is anti-American feeling in Scotland these days that had Fearless Keir broken the habit of his government’s lifetime and stuck to his guns over the use of UK bases for the Iran air strikes, Labour might have been on something resembling a roll, but as the Prime Minster is now tied in knots on foreign policy, as Thursday’s leaden statement proved, it could easily be back to square one.
An unimpressive prize for the runner-up
What, then, can we take from all the ups and downs in the polls as Holyrood lurches to the end of this parliament in less than three weeks? That John Swinney will still be First Minister, certainly, and that there will be so little between the other parties than the term “official opposition” will be a technicality for which the runner-up prize is get to ask more questions at First Minster’s Questions. And having been involved in writing those scripts, it’s not much of a trophy.
We can safely put money on both Anas Sarwar and Russell Findlay deciding that the honourable thing to do is give someone else a go, and that Alex Cole-Hamilton and Ross Greer will be even more insufferable than before, as hard as that might be for the average voter to imagine.
Reform leader Malcolm Offord will enjoy himself for about a fortnight and then wonder why he ever thought that being accused of being an apologist for racism every week was a good use of his time. For the next five years. And Keir Starmer? Well, it was a privilege to serve.
Stagnation and decline
As for the rest of us, the chances of the Scottish Parliament actually making us better off, or even feel better off, will be as far away as ever. Taxes and the welfare bill will only go one way and not down, and the economy will only go one way, and not up.
Oil and gas will remain beneath the North Sea, windfarms will spring up on the few remaining hillsides and the closest we will get to nuclear power is a dental X-ray or a smoke detector. The A9, A96, A77 and A75 will remain undualled and the Sheriffhall Roundabout unbuilt. The general outlook is one of stagnation.
An overwhelming victory for the SNP, whether because of a hopelessly divided opposition knocking each other out or not, is a victory for mediocrity and underachievement, certainly not a vote for transformation. The only transformation sought by the nationalists is constitutional, and if the super-poll proves accurate and there is a clear overall SNP majority, would a new Labour Prime Minister have the courage to refuse a referendum?
But with the circumstances not conducive for victory − a flagging economy, global instability or worse, and independence polling stubbornly 10 points adrift from the comfort of a solid 60-40 lead – will the SNP press for one? Having stood on the platform they must, but the Quebecois know how two referendum defeats end.
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