Why Labour's landslide has liberated Scotland from dead hand of independence debate

The “de facto referendum” of Nicola Sturgeon’s dreams produced a crushing defeat. Now the demand for something better and more hopeful will not be confined to a Westminster election. The electoral ground having shifted, the dynamic of Scottish politics will be very different over the next 22 months.

As the results came in, I rejoiced in the extent to which voters had ignored merchants of self-interested doom. All the negativity towards Keir Starmer and criticism of his caution had made not an iota of difference. Voters have enough common sense to understand the necessary pre-conditions for winning an election and the uselessness of grandiose commitments.

Just like in the rest of Britain, Scottish voters turned out to vote for change. The clutchers-at-straws insist: “They weren’t voting for Labour but against the Tories.” I neither know nor care how this balance of sentiments is quantified. What matters is that a Labour government was returned with a massive majority and a huge Scottish input. That is where potential lies.

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Some of the results were incredible with Labour candidates who started in poor third places winning seats with solid majorities. The territory ceded over the past decade was recovered in one fell swoop which went far beyond my own expectations. It was an awesome expression of a transformed collective mood.

Keir Starmer has done an extraordinary job in leading Labour to a landslide victory within five years of inheriting a wreck. He did so with an unremitting focus on outcomes. Why should anyone doubt that he has an equally clear view of how to start using the levers of government for just and attainable ends?

Labour in Scotland can now work with colleagues at Westminster to build a platform for change which transcends dividing lines between devolved and reserved powers. Instead of being isolated in opposition to two hostile governments, Scottish Labour finds itself at the centre of events with an open door to influence over policies and priorities.

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Nothing is assured but I am pretty confident that 22 months from now, the Starmer team will be progressing well and the offer of two governments working together for Scotland’s interests will be as attractive on May 7, 2026, as was Thursday’s first step towards that option. Referendums and the constitution will not be at the forefront of many minds.

I admit there are other conceivable scenarios but why, on the day after Labour has won a landslide victory and transformed the political map and mood of Scotland, should any person or party be dwelling upon them? If all the SNP can do is deny anything has changed and bluster accordingly, they will soon become the pub bores.

Mr Swinney is not going to inspire anyone with positivity or ideas and will increasingly be called on to defend his own government’s record in office. If Labour can combine an effective prosecution of that case at Holyrood with building a powerful vision for “two Labour governments” working in harmony, then voters will not have a difficult choice to make. And it will be the same one that they made on Thursday. Therein lies the challenge which Anas Sarwar and Jackie Baillie are well-equipped to lead.

Meanwhile, the Tories face a decision of historic significance and are being forced into it sooner than is sensible by Rishi Sunak’s resignation announcement. I am reminded of what happened to Labour when Ed Miliband cleared off after losing in 2015. With no pause for consideration, a rash reaction made matters worse rather than better.

Though they were in power, the Tories have never recovered from the fundamental split over EU membership and may never do so. Most of the “one nation” brigade have either been driven out or lost their seats. Another lurch to the right to head off the threat from Reform UK would finish the job and leave the middle ground wide open.

The rise of Reform UK has to be taken seriously. At least we have been freed from the myth that we “don’t have that kind of thing up here” with Farage’s party taking thousands of votes in Scottish constituencies where they hardly made an appearance. Anyone who under-estimates the potential for right-wing populism to flourish hasn’t been paying attention to what is happening in Europe.

There is volatility in politics and a clear willingness, particularly among young voters who take their information from social media, to look at alternatives outside the traditional mainstream. That is not going to change and will only be countered through delivery of outcomes and options that improve lives and encourage aspirations.

Both the Tories and SNP took power for granted, forgot who they were elected to serve and were eventually found out. No Scottish politician inherited a better chance to change the country for good than Nicola Sturgeon and she blew it comprehensively through her own vanities and priorities. In most respects, she was the author of the SNP’s humiliation in Thursday’s election.

I doubt if it brought much solace to defeated SNP candidates around Scotland to catch glimpses of her on ITV advancing her career as an election pundit when one of the biggest questions of the night was one she could never afford to answer honestly, despite her obvious qualifications: “Where did it all go wrong for the SNP?”

That would have required a degree of self-awareness which was never part of Ms Sturgeon’s persona. Maybe her time would have been more usefully spent in Glasgow, consoling her party’s losers.