Why Andy Burnham may soon face the same fate as Keir Starmer – Brian Monteith
With Britain sinking in a sea of debt, Prime Minister-in-waiting Andy Burnham will have little room for manoeuvre
The recent Westminster by-elections have not solved the problems that the UK faces, they have merely rearranged the deckchairs on the sinking ship of state. The band plays on while the captain is about to be replaced but the leviathan is still holed below the waterline, unseen by all but a few that are close to it.
The passengers are currently oblivious to the structural damage that is not being repaired and, absurdly, being in a state of such ignorance, are inclined towards making the ship move faster, quickening its descent towards Davy Jones’s locker. The by-election results have been the focus, but the underlying threats to the public finances upon which we all depend remain real.
In Aberdeen South, the Conservatives pulled off a historic win (the first Tory by-election gain in Scotland since Pollock in 1967). Suggestions by Conservatives that Reform should not stand as it would lead to an SNP victory were shown to be petty sectarian politicking. The electorate took a view and decided for itself the Tories offered the best chance to oust the SNP, leading to both the Labour and Reform vote being squeezed, although Reform still increased its vote share compared to 2024.
In Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, the SNP held on but both the Conservatives and Reform increased their vote share, but not enough to defeat the SNP even if added together. More telling was that, in both seats, the Labour vote collapsed from second place to fourth.
Burnham a last throw of the dice
Almost all eyes were, however, on the Makerfield by-election, because it bestowed on one parliamentary constituency the opportunity of changing the Labour leader and hence the Prime Minister. It was, to some extent, a general election held only in one safe Labour seat.
In the end Labour’s potential saviour, Andy Burnham, won the seat comfortably with a larger majority – but Reform also increased its votes and vote share from 31.8 to 34.5 per cent, despite being under attack from the right by a party that had no other ambition other than to do Reform down – ‘Restore’ managing an inconsequential 6.8 per cent. As for the Conservatives, they polled just over two per cent.
Clearly Burnham attracted a good deal of personal support, which is no surprise given the context locally (a local lad and popular mayor) and nationally (a possible replacement for a highly unpopular Prime Minister). Labour voters, I expect, see him as the last throw of the dice to have an attractive leader who can win.
Yet even Burnham still polled below Labour’s traditional high-water marks in that seat. In 1997, Tony Blair’s New Labour won 73 per cent, in 2001 it was 68 per cent and in 2005 it was still 63 per cent. Since then, the seas have been stormy and Labour has never reached such heights.
The political maelstrom leading up to Burnham’s return to Westminster – including but not limited to the scandal of Mandelson’s appointment and the crises across our military defences – has cost Keir Starmer his job, but the real news is being missed.
READ MORE: The sub-text to Keir Starmer's bitter resignation statement was crystal clear – Euan McColm
The UK’s debt problem
Last week it was revealed, while most politicians were distracted by their own circuses, that the ship of state was taking in water at an unsustainable level. The UK Government borrowed £23.3 billion in May, which is £5.4bn more than May 2025 and worryingly £5.6 bn higher than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast.
This higher-than-expected figure was heavily driven by another record high – the UK Government’s debt interest payments of £11.7bn, up £4.1bn compared to the previous year. The figures in the previous month of April were similar, with borrowing of £24.3bn, £4.9bn more than the same month in 2025 and £3.4bn above the OBR estimate.
The bottom line is that the current government’s borrowing levels mean Andy Burnham has no money to do things differently. Given he will not countenance cutting any spending by an impactful level, he and his Chancellor will have to borrow more or tax more, or try both. The scale of interest payments will only grow and Burnham’s inability to deliver meaningful change will lead to his own unpopularity.
Last month, when speaking about Europe in Leeds, Burnham said: “I am not proposing the UK considers rejoining the EU.” Let’s wait and see. A good first step would be to abandon Starmer's unpopular “EU reset”.
Starmer’s approach of easily accepting Brussel’s demands will also incur yet more debt as we will be expected to pay the EU for a relationship that is free for other countries. That consideration never occurred to the hapless, ideologically driven Starmer.
Burnham boxed in
As the cost of the UK’s debt burden grows and markets prepare to take a dim view of any additional borrowing, Burnham’s room to manoeuvre will be significantly reduced. He is boxed in whichever way he turns – offering change but not having the funds to meet the bills that doing it differently incurs.
In essence, Starmer entered Downing Street because his party was not the Tories – now Burnham is entering Number 10 because he is not Starmer. While he appears a more warm and sympathetic personality, the public will need more than just vibes to believe their lives and the futures for their children are getting better.
Merely changing captain and moving the ministerial deckchairs will, I suggest, not be enough to save our souls from the icy waters of Labour’s economic reckoning. Sadly, there are simply not enough lifeboats and businesses will close and jobs will be lost. A general election to launch a new ship of state cannot come soon enough.
Brian Monteith is a former member of the Scottish and European parliaments and senior advisor to the Tax Reform Council
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