SNP want legal route to independence. Here's what that looks like

However, the fact that independence is not going to happen any time soon actually makes this a good time to establish the ground rules. Doing so would mean that were this issue to become a serious prospect, there would be an established procedure to follow.

An agreed route would also rob the more excitable nationalists of the claim that democracy is being denied and that therefore the Scottish Government would be justified in attempting a Catalonia-style, unofficial referendum or some kind of unilateral declaration of independence. Both would result in unnecessary chaos, strife and economic damage that Scotland can well do without.

A decisive result

In 2021, the then Scottish Secretary Alister Jack somewhat surprised those who know him as the staunchest of unionists by suggesting that persistent support for separation of 60 per cent in polls would be enough to trigger a second referendum.

But there is another way: hand control of the timing of a second referendum to the Scottish Government – in exchange for two key concessions. The first would be the need for a ‘super-majority’ for independence to pass. So instead of 50 per cent plus one vote, it would only happen if backed by perhaps 60 or 66 per cent of voters.

The second would be an agreement that another referendum, the third, could not be held for a period of time, say 20 or 30 years. This would mean the result, either way, would be decisive for a generation.

Some nationalists will be appalled by these suggestions. But creating a new country when half the population are opposed to the idea would make for a spectacularly bad start. Scottish devolution was backed by 74 per cent of voters and remaining in the EU by 62 per cent. Supporters of independence, a far more profound proposition, should be aiming for similar levels of support.