SNP's future hangs in the balance as anxious party members gather in Edinburgh

Some paint a bleak picture, pointing to angry and frustrated activists. Others are slightly more optimistic. But all will be looking to John Swinney and his leadership team for answers.

Asked if they were going, one party figure replied: "I am, because I'm a f**king sadomasochist.” Another accused the leadership of being "in a state of denial", adding: "We just seem to be carrying on as normal, as if the election didn't happen."

A source close to the First Minister insisted plenty of debate has been going on inside the party behind closed doors. "We have regained our ability to wash our dirty linen in private," they added.

The SNP's annual conference will take place in the Edinburgh International Conference Centre from Friday to Sunday, and comes just weeks after the party was reduced to nine MPs at the general election, having won 48 in 2019. It was, in the words of one party figure, "a drubbing, a hammering, a humiliation". Mr Swinney, who only took over in May, now has the unenviable task of turning things around.

He has already signalled a rethink over the party’s independence strategy. No one believes a second referendum will happen any time soon, but how Mr Swinney addresses this will be key.

This is far from the only problem. The SNP is battling against a narrative of decline, with its latest annual accounts showing its membership continuing to plummet. It had some 125,000 members in 2019; as of June this year, this had dropped to 64,525.

Meanwhile, the Scottish Government is preparing to announce painful public spending cuts in the coming days as it grapples with a financial headache, and the next Holyrood election is less than two years away.

In short, Mr Swinney will have a tough job selling a compelling vision to activists. He will lead an “internal election review” in a private session of the conference on Friday morning, before delivering his main speech on Sunday afternoon.

“John knows how to engage with the party,” the source close to the First Minister said. “He is famous for it.” But they warned not to expect any wheezes or rabbits out of hats. “Mr Swinney is not a wheeze politician,” they added.

Stewart McDonald, the SNP MP for Glasgow South until last month, said there needed to be a focus on the route forward. "People are going to want to lick their wounds a bit, and that's fine, there's value in that,” he told The Scotsman. “But let's not do it for too long.

"Yes, okay, we have to understand what has gone wrong and there has to be a discussion about what has gone wrong, but more important than that is the road forward. If you're looking for somebody in the SNP to talk about what's gone wrong, you'll get a million hands going up. But the more important debate is on what comes next."

He added: "When parties get skelped, and this is true of all political parties, they tend to retreat to their comfort zone in one form or another. The challenge for us is to ensure we don't do that."

Mr McDonald said improving public services is crucial. He also believes the SNP should “take the initiative” on attempting to codify the circumstances under which a second referendum should take place.

“It should be honest about the fact that indyref2 ain't happening any time soon - that's perfectly clear,” he said. “There's no public appetite for it and the UK Government has made its position on that clear."

James Mitchell, professor of public policy at Edinburgh University and an expert on the SNP, said the party faces a huge challenge.

"From a governing perspective, they've got challenges,” he told The Scotsman. “Also, I think everybody recognises, whether they do so publicly or otherwise, that the question of an independence referendum and the question of independence is not on the agenda, and it's off the agenda for the foreseeable future. That is, I think, a challenge, because many people in the SNP - most people in the SNP - won't want to hear that."

Prof Mitchell said there are no easy answers. "When a party starts to go into decline and it's undeniable, then people get agitated, they get angry, they raise awkward questions and they look for quick solutions,” he said. “The blame games internally start."

He added: "They cannot afford to have blood on the floor of the conference, because you've got an election coming up in two years."

He said the SNP was guilty of overpromising over the last decade. "It kept saying it's just round the corner, we're going to have this referendum, we're doing so well, we're going to create this better Scotland, this progressive Scotland, we're going to spend on this, we're going to spend on that,” he said. "It was all frankly smoke and mirrors, and as the smoke has cleared and the mirrors have been removed, we're seeing the reality."

Alex Neil, a former SNP minister and outspoken critic of its leadership, said there was still time for the party to turn things around, but this is rapidly running out.

"I have to say there's quite a lot of members telling me they're not even bothering going to the conference, because they are so fed up,” he said.