Why Nigel Farage's hard-right English nationalism poses existential threat to Scottish Tories

It is easy to see the appeal of populism, the offer of simplistic solutions to complex problems: the “faith, flag and family” message of nationalism; put the homeland first and forget the rest of the world.

It isn’t just on the other side of the Atlantic that we see this political shift. Today we see it across Europe with the rise of the hard-right. In the UK, the recent general election result showed that Reform has become a serious player in UK politics for the first time, having a major impact in increasing the size of a landslide Labour victory – achieved on barely a third of the total votes cast. 

This presents the Conservative party, and in particular potential candidates for leadership, with a significant challenge. Is the way forward to embrace the Reform agenda to “unite the right” as some would put it, or rather to reject an essentially English nationalist approach and instead try and retain the centre ground?

Robustly anti-immigration

The case for the former approach appears straightforward. Add together the Conservative and Reform vote shares, and the total of 38 per cent actually exceeds the Labour share of 33.7 per cent. But this calculation is based on the false premise that everyone voting Conservative would continue with their allegiance to the party were it to shift to the hard-Brexit, robustly anti-immigration policies espoused by Reform. Potential candidates for UK Conservative leader need to remember that elections are won in the centre ground, not from the extremes.

Why Reform UK now has to be taken seriously in Scotland

It would be equally wrong, in my view, to conclude that all votes for Reform were an endorsement of that party’s policy agenda. The few Reform voters I met during the campaign trail were not particularly fans of Nigel Farage or of his platform, but were rather casting a protest vote against a Conservative party in government that they felt was out of touch, and in particular had not displayed in office the standards of behaviour that they expected from their leaders. 

The combination of Partygate, various sex scandals, questions over PPE contracts, and the crowning glory of the disclosures of potentially illegal betting on the election date, meant that many traditional Conservative voters simply wanted to send a message of disappointment and disgust. These voters are won back by rebuilding a reputation for integrity, not tacking to the right.

Woefully ill-advised

What applies south of the Border applies equally, if not more, in Scotland. Here Reform did not have the same impact as in England, but nevertheless achieved a significant 7 per cent of votes cast, contributing to the Conservatives having our worst-ever vote share in a general election at 12.7 per cent.

The one seat where the presence of a Reform candidate may have had a significant impact on the outcome was in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, where the 5,562 Reform votes substantially outweighed the 942 majority that SNP candidate Seamus Logan had over the Conservative Douglas Ross.

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Had it not been for the woefully ill-advised decision to replace a respected and hard-working MP in David Duguid, who was suffering from an illness, with the party leader Douglas Ross, it seems likely that the seat would have been a Conservative hold, with the SNP deprived of their one gain on a night which otherwise was truly dismal for the party.

Abolition of Holyrood?

The next challenge for the Scottish Conservatives comes looking forward to the Holyrood election in 2026. We can expect Reform to run an energetic campaign to try and achieve a presence in Holyrood for the first time which, on the basis of the vote share earlier this month, would be achievable.

There has always been a small but significant proportion of the Scottish electorate who hold the view that devolution is a mistake, and that Holyrood should be abolished. Up ’til now they have had no party representing that view, and if they have voted at all it has probably been for the Scottish Conservatives. 

Now, in Reform, they will have a voice, and that presents a real risk to my party, already being squeezed on the other flank as the “transactional unionists”, perhaps traditional Labour or Lib Dem voters who started voting Scottish Tory under Ruth Davidson’s leadership, drift back to their former homes.

Old parties are dying

It adds up to an existential challenge for the Scottish Conservatives and Unionist Party, with the vote being squeezed on both sides. It would be a serious error, here as south of the Border, to embrace the Reform agenda and become hostile to devolution. Holyrood needs reformed, as I have argued before, not closed down. But that will require some sophisticated strategic thinking about how we reposition ourselves.

Political parties have no God-given right to exist. As we see across Europe, and most dramatically and recently in France, old parties are dying and being replaced with new insurgents.

Three weeks ago, seven-in-eight voters chose not to vote Scottish Conservative. We cannot ignore that message. If our party is to have a future, we will need to change and adapt to new circumstances. 

That is why the forthcoming leadership contest is so important, as we look for distinct visions of the party’s future being laid out. There should be no barrier placed in front of candidates and visions on offer; this party, and the Scottish centre-right, needs to hear all the options we have to climb out of the hole we are in. My vote will be going to the leadership candidate who best articulates the case for change.

Murdo Fraser is a Scottish Conservative MSP for Mid-Scotland and Fife