Here’s why Tories need a pact with Nigel Farage to avoid slaughter in 2026

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer still takes a bit of getting used to, in what has been an exceptional first week on the international stage, with a Nato summit, major incidents in Gaza and Ukraine and then the assassination attempt on Donald Trump which must now make his return to the White House as certain as Rishi Sunak’s departure from Number 10.

But, from the outside, the transition to Labour appears seamless, arguably because Labour’s expectation management has been so expert that very little was expected. We will know tomorrow if any rabbits are hidden under the crown when the King’s Speech is delivered, but breaths are not being held.

The only misstep was the Daily Telegraph’s report that Energy Secretary Ed Miliband had told civil servants that no new North Sea oil and gas licences would be granted, at the same time as Labour promised to throw money at Grangemouth which will rely on processing fracked American liquefied gas without North Sea fossil fuels.

Although the licence block was rebutted, it was entirely believable as it accompanied the lifting of what was effectively a planning ban on onshore wind farms in England, haughtily described by Ms Reeves as “absurd”. Across Scotland, rural communities are fighting against the onward march of wind turbines where their looming presence is anything but absurd, and last week Scottish Borders councillors stood up for their communities by ignoring their officers’ recommendation to approve a previously rejected eight-turbine scheme near Heriot.

Tokenism over oil industry

In Moray, whisky heritage and a new community distillery are at the heart of a project to regenerate the depopulated Cabrach area, a Scottish Government-supported scheme threatened by three new windfarm applications totalling 118 turbines. With those already built and consented, it could mean a fragile, romantic wilderness will be dominated by over 200 turbines in Scotland’s largest onshore wind park.

Although planning and energy are devolved, the dismissive Reeves-Miliband attitude to community concerns and token concern for North Sea oil and gas jobs is entirely aligned with SNP policy and gives the Scottish Government cover for its extreme net-zero agenda.

The groundwork is already being done. “In energy, there are now significant incentives for both the SNP and Labour to ensure the other delivers,” wrote Nicola Sturgeon’s former chief of staff Liz Lloyd in this week’s Sunday Times, adding: “The two governments’ stated goals of a just transition, a clean energy system and hitting the interconnected net-zero targets of 2045 and 2050 surely mean the two should be sitting round the same table working out what decisions are needed and how they are implemented.”

Sounding rather like her old boss, Ms Lloyd claimed this should be “neither difficult nor controversial”, but for communities like Heriot and the Cabrach such a shoulder-to-shoulder rejection of concerns is precisely why they feel besieged. It’s also why, very much against the national trend and 12.7 per cent vote share, the Scottish Conservatives held all their Borders seats and won three in the North East.

‘Trendy left’ consensus

They only lost the two Moray seats because the Reform UK vote was so high, and it would have been a truly extraordinary night if both the SNP and Scottish Conservatives had tied on seven seats each. With Conservative leadership manoeuvrings, north and south of the Border, now fully in swing, addressing the threat of Reform is dominating the agenda in the south but here it’s almost as if it doesn’t exist.

Writing in Saturday’s Scottish Daily Mail, front-runner Russell Findlay MSP ticked lots of Conservative boxes about low tax, personal responsibility and the “wholesale replacement of the existing ‘trendy left’ consensus by one which actually reflects the aspirations and ambitions of ordinary Scots”. The now aligned SNP-Labour approach to energy is the perfect example, but there was no mention of the effect of destabilisation on the right.

Speaking to the Telegraph at the weekend, leadership hopeful Meghan Gallacher MSP positioned herself as the new Ruth Davidson, brandishing her working-class roots, while her colleague Miles Briggs MSP said he’d gone off the idea of a full breakaway from the UK party.

Three-way Tory split

It’s almost as if its business as usual, but under Holyrood’s proportional list system the presence of Reform candidates in 2026 could be catastrophic, given their general election returns were achieved with virtually no campaigning other than Nigel Farage mouthing off on TV.

For any Scottish Conservative MSP still harbouring thoughts of leading a breakaway party, it’s already happened and they weren’t asked; a Conservative division would create a three-way spilt and make the left consensus unassailable. It's now known Rishi Sunak did entertain thoughts of a non-competition electoral pact with Reform, but detailed talks never took place because he opted instead for a snap poll to wrong-foot Mr Farage.

The realty now facing Conservatives here is that without a dramatic turnaround in fortunes and a dynamic leader who can capture public imagination – even under Ruth Davidson the vote share in the 2015 election was only 14.9 per cent and only one seat was won – the next two years will be a slog, even if unencumbered by awkward government decisions in London.

But, with a higher national profile thanks to its five MPs, even if Reform just stands on a ticket of abolishing Holyrood altogether – now backed by one-in-five Scots, according to a poll in March – that slog could turn into the slaughter of Conservative MSPs unless an accommodation is reached. Whoever becomes the new Scottish Conservative leader, their tenure will be short if Reform isn’t taken seriously. And the only winner will be the left.