Never mind the polls, now Reform UK is winning elections in Scotland

The economic numbers are getting worse and, with unemployment moving up the ranking of problems to be confronted, it is set to become a much bigger issue in 2026. The Chancellor is in denial about reality, arguing the growing number of jobless has nothing to do with her measures.

Let me remind readers, Reeves has not only made the employers’ tax on hiring people higher, but she has also lowered the threshold the tax kicks in at and raised the minimum wage levels – ensuring employers’ national insurance contributions either rise – or employees are let go.

Then last week we had confirmation that the monthly real economic GDP figure fell by 0.1 per cent for the second month in a row. Is a recession just around the corner?

READ MORE: Poll: SNP well ahead for Holyrood election with Labour behind Reform

Now the Resolution Foundation, a think tank that has been recommending higher taxes to Reeves and whose former chief executive, Torsten Bell MP, has become a hugely influential Treasury minister, is arguing that taxes have had a negative effect. Which is it to be? The left hand doesn’t seem to know what the far left hand is doing.

The U-turns and the economies with the truth are all taking their toll with public support – and the shambles of the second Budget that was meant to be based upon a fiscal black hole that never existed has left no credibility to cling on to.

The polling is not shifting towards a Labour recovery, indeed not only does the polling continue to get worse (Reform have now been ahead in 175 consecutive opinion polls) we have now had the first Scottish by-election win in Scotland for Reform.

READ MORE: Reform UK hails first election in Scotland as 'dam breaking' moment

Last Thursday's Whitburn and Blackburn by-election result was not just remarkable because the Reform candidate won, it is especially revealing because it is a repeat of the same seat council ward having a by-election last November.

Labour won that contest, defeating the SNP and leaving Reform somewhat behind in third place, with the other candidates relatively nowhere. The Labour councillor later resigned from the council and the Labour party – hence the by-election.

The result was nothing short of a Labour collapse – which speaks to the performances of both Starmer and Sarwar in maintaining the support they enjoyed only a year ago. After the elections for Holyrood, the Welsh Senedd and English councils next year, it is difficult to see either Labour leader remaining in post beyond May.

READ MORE: Why Reform UK’s new champion means Scottish Tories can’t rely on their usual strategy to win votes

Another important event milestone in the by-election was how the Reform candidate won. Conducted under the single transferable vote system used for council elections, Reform’s David McLennan was ahead in the first count with 1,177 votes, with the SNP on 1,028 and Labour on only 627. By the time the lowest candidates were eliminated and the second preferences redistributed, the final number was 1,411 for Reform and 1,387 for the SNP, with Labour being eliminated in third.

The fact that Reform was able to hang on to win was because enough voters supporting other parties decided to give a second preference vote to Reform rather than Labour or the SNP – suggesting that the tactical approach of branding Reform as “far right” used by the mainstream parties is not having the desired effect.

Just a month ago in a council by-election in Stranraer, the Reform candidate was ahead after the first count but after subsequent redistributions was then overtaken by the Conservative candidate who won. In council by-elections, low turnouts can have a significant effect in altering results compared to higher turnouts of Westminster or Holyrood elections, giving supposedly smaller parties the hope of doing well.

And anyway, Reform is no longer small. With 268,000 members UK-wide, it is now the largest party in Britain and at 12,000 members in Scotland is thought to be above Labour. Former SNP supporters have also had enough of public services being neglected, with a former councillor moving to Reform last week.

The argument that Reform cannot win an election on its own merits and will only be able to win regional lists seats for the Scottish Parliament has now been shown to be wishful thinking on the part of those who have the most to fear.

With a strong candidate and a good team working in a targeted constituency, it could be possible for Reform to win a constituency. This will throw any calculations and permutations as to who forms an administration into chaos.

With a Holyrood election coming up fast, all the momentum is currently with Reform, with Labour falling away badly. Leadership challenges beckon, and who can say with any certainty that John Swinney will last long as leader of the SNP if he is unable to form an administration or sees the SNP suffer significant losses.

The higher turnout of a Holyrood election is now what the legacy parties will be hoping to rely upon to save them from embarrassment. With a new leader-in-waiting in Malcolm Offord – who acquitted himself well in the face of the other parties ganging-up on him during BBC’s Question Time in Paisley last week – the Holyrood election is becoming very interesting indeed.

Add to the turmoil caused by the growth of Reform the fact that the threat of an independence referendum is receding and so – for once – the SNP will need to fight an election on its record, and it is clear the old certainties no longer hold.

Brian Monteith is a former member of the Scottish and European parliaments and editor of ThinkScotland.org