If the Iran War is now over, Donald Trump has some serious questions to answer
Suggestions that the Iran War may be over raise questions about what its aims actually were and what the conflict has achieved
In January – amid mass protests against the dictatorship in Iran, during which up to 40,000 people are believed to have been killed by the authorities, and a US military build-up in the region – Donald Trump told Iranians: “Help is coming.”
There was also some talk from his administration about ousting the tyrannical government when the US and Israel began launching missile strikes in February, but the US President later appeared to claim this goal had been achieved by the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
So if Iran abides by its decision yesterday to re-open the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, the fragile ceasefire holds, and the war is now effectively over, hopes that the downfall of this brutal regime is imminent appear to have been dashed.
This raises further questions about what the war aims actually were and what the conflict has achieved. Keir Starmer’s correct decision not to get involved was in part because of concern about the lack of well-defined goals from the beginning.
Iran’s nuclear ambitions
Trump has sought to justify the war by saying Iran must not be allowed to have nuclear weapons, despite saying that US missile strikes on Iran in June last year had “completely and totally obliterated” its nuclear enrichment facilities.
Given the US military’s extraordinary capabilities, Iran’s nuclear programme probably has been severely damaged at least. However, the regime may draw the lesson that, if they had possessed nuclear weapons, like North Korea, they would not have been attacked and redouble their efforts to obtain them.
Another major consequence of the war was to dramatically increase the price of oil, threatening a major global economic crisis. The benchmark price of Brent crude rose from less than $70 a barrel to $119 at one point. Yesterday, on news the strait was re-opening, it dipped below $90.
The end of any war is welcome, but why this one started remains unclear. And for ordinary Iranians, it appears they will be forced to continue to live under a regime that, if anything, is now even more oppressive and murderous than it was when the streets ran red with blood in January.
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