How tactical voting can deliver a shock Scottish election result for the SNP
Scottish Parliament seat projections based on national polling do not properly take account of tactical voting against the SNP – as demonstrated by the 2024 general election result
There is just over a week until Scotland votes to decide who will form its government for the next five years. At this point, it would be fair to observe that the election campaign has not really engaged the public imagination, nor have we seen a great deal of enthusiasm for voting.
We should remember that around a quarter of the electorate, and a higher percentage in rural areas, vote by post, and many will have done so already. With overall turnout likely to be not much above 50 per cent, this means that potentially around half the people who will vote in total in this election have cast their votes already. This fact will not stop all political parties making an energetic final push for votes.
Candidates are certainly working hard for votes. With my own team in the Perthshire North constituency, we have spoken directly to more than 3,000 voters in the last few weeks. I can draw a number of conclusions from the many discussions we have had so far.
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Few voters interested in policy details
Firstly, there is a general level of dissatisfaction with politicians of all stripes. This disillusionment is driven by a number of factors, including the uncertainty around both the prospects of the economy in Scotland and the UK as a whole, and a deeply troubling international situation. These fears are coupled with a belief that no party has convincing answers to improve matters.
This feeds into the second factor: the high level of those saying they are undecided, or may not vote at all. We are therefore likely to see low voter turnout in an election which does really matter to Scotland’s future direction.
My third takeaway is how few voters are interested in the detail of the policies on offer from the various parties. All politicians put a great deal of effort into preparing their manifestos, but in my experience these have relatively little impact on voter behaviour. Of the many thousands of voters I and my team have spoken to, I can count on the fingers of one hand the number who actually want a detailed discussion on any policies.
In the current election campaign, I find that the electorate divides into two groups. The first group are those who believe that overall the SNP have done a decent job in government over the past 19 years, and deserve another five years in power. This group consists almost entirely of those who are committed to Scottish independence, even though they may not see this as a likely outcome in the near future.
The second group, a substantially larger one, consists of those who believe that Scotland is going in the wrong direction and it is time for a change. This group is comprised of almost all those who oppose independence, but also a sizable number who support independence as an eventual outcome but believe either that it is not the priority for Scotland at this time, or that the SNP are not the best vehicle to deliver it.
Many in this second group are actively asking about tactical voting, and who they should vote for at a local level to defeat the SNP and avoid them having another five years in power.
Slump in SNP support
There are various tactical voting guides, such as those provided by the campaign group Scotland in Union, which will point voters to the party best placed to defeat the SNP in constituencies across the country. Under the current Holyrood voting system, that then leaves individuals able to then pick the party of their choice on the peach list vote, even if they pick a different party for the constituency.
The lack of enthusiasm for this election is partly explained by the relatively consistent opinion polling, showing the SNP on course to be the next government of Scotland, even though they have lost perhaps as many as one in three of their supporters since 2021. The SNP are aided by the rise of Reform taking votes away from pro-Union parties, meaning it’s conceivable that John Swinney could end up with an overall majority of seats on barely a third of the total vote.
Intelligent tactical voting could avoid this outcome, and the voters’ interest in it is not, I suspect, being properly reflected in the current polling that we have seen. Seat projections for the Scottish Parliament based on national polling do not properly take account of the impact of tactical voting against the SNP in individual constituencies.
We saw something similar to this back in the 2024 general election, when I do not recall any pollsters accurately predicting that the SNP would lose 39 seats across Scotland. It was pro-Union tactical voting that delivered this devastating outcome for the Nationalists, and we could see a repeat next week if tactical voting is as widespread as I expect it to be.
The Scottish Conservatives are standing in every part of Scotland, and whether one votes for us tactically or not in the constituency, using the peach list ballot paper will elect Conservatives right across the country, just as we did in previous elections. In both 2016 under Ruth Davidson and 2021 under Douglas Ross, it was the Scottish Conservatives who prevented the SNP getting an overall majority of seats, and we can do the same under Russell Findlay next week if enough voters are smart enough to use their peach list vote to back us.
In the constituencies, I believe that tactical voting will deliver us much better results than many pollsters are predicting. With one week to go, it is still all to play for if we want a parliament that properly represents all the people of Scotland.
Murdo Fraser is the Scottish Conservative candidate for Perthshire North
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