Exclusive:Anas Sarwar insists he can defy polling by using 'sophisticated' campaign to target knife-edge seats

National polling has consistently forecast that the SNP will become the biggest party at Holyrood following May 7’s Scottish Parliament election - leaving Labour’s chances of forming the next government dependent on closing the gap with John Swinney’s party and hoping other unionist parties back Mr Sarwar to become first minister.

Last week, pollster Sir John Curtice forecast there is a “less than 1 per cent chance” of someone other than John Swinney becoming first minister following the election.

The likelihood of Reform backing Mr Sarwar becoming the next first minister have diminished amid a hostile and very-public spat with the party’s Scotland leader, Malcolm Offord. Labour insiders now believe Reform would more likely prop up another SNP government, with a senior source telling The Scotsman that “Reform just want to cause chaos at all costs”.

Despite the dire polling for Labour that shows the SNP still at least 15, potentially as far as 20 percentage points ahead of them, Mr Sarwar has told The Scotsman that his party’s more sophisticated and extensive ground operation in constituencies across the Central Belt gives him a chance of realistically challenging the nationalists at a local level.

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Labour’s support is concentrated in the Central Belt while the SNP’s voters are spread fairly evenly across Scotland, with Mr Sarwar’s team believing they can come out on top of several constituency battles too close to call.

Mr Sarwar told The Scotsman: “There are probably more than half the constituencies in Scotland that are on a knife-edge.

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“Which way they go will decide this election. So in the vast majority of constituencies it’s a straight choice between Labour and the SNP.”

He added: “If you want to reject the poison of Reform, if you want to beat the SNP, if you want to change Scotland it’s abundantly clear now that Scottish Labour is the only party that can do that.

“Reform is going to help keep the SNP in power - they have no interest in removing the SNP from power. They only want to create noise in this election campaign. That’s their modus operandi.

“For me, I want to change my country. The only way you get change is by voting for Scottish Labour on May 7.”

Asked how Scottish Labour will mobilise its support in the final few days ahead of polls opening, Mr Sarwar said: “We have the strongest ground operation of any political party in this election campaign.

READ MORE: Sarwar accuses SNP and Reform of 'co-ordinated plan' to smear him and poses 'moral question' for Swinney

“We have the strongest digital operation of any political party in this election campaign. I believe we have the strongest offer and message in this political campaign.”

The Scottish Labour leader acknowledged that “our challenge is when people start to wake up and the election becomes more alive in terms of people’s day-to-day thinking”.

He said: “I think we are seeing that already with many postal voters that they are having to make decisions already.

“I think they are coming to us. But we need more people to come to us and persuade and that’s what I’m going to spend the next two weeks focusing on.”

A senior Scottish Labour source admitted that “the polls, on a national level, don’t look great”, adding that “we’re not blind to that”.

The source added: “But there is still a lot to play for at a constituency level.

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“In a lot of those local battles right across the Central Belt, we have a chance of edging ahead of the SNP. If we can do that in a number of them, we have a route to do enough to put ourselves in play.

“We showed at last year’s by-election that our grassroots game is head and shoulders above anyone else's. But we still have a lot of people we need to win over.”

Mr Swinney, the SNP leader, told The Scotsman his party still needs to turn favourable polling into an election victory.

He said: “The opinion polls are showing a shape where the SNP is in the lead. But we’ve got to turn that into reality. It’s all very well having an opinion poll lead, you’ve got to turn it into reality.

“That’s why we’re fighting such an energetic campaign and why I was down in the Borders and East Lothian and in Greenock and Argyle and Bute and travelling to the north of Scotland .

“It will go on like that until polling day to make sure that we fight a high-profile, visual campaign which engages the public on the issues that matter to them.”

Today, Mr Swinney will set out his programme for the first 100 days of government if the SNP is re-elected in a keynote speech.

The SNP leader will point to action he claims will prioritise early action to support people with the cost of living crisis and will set out the initial steps towards the fresh start of independence.

The First Minister will also argue that the SNP is the only party setting out a serious plan for government, claiming other parties focused instead on preventing the SNP from forming the next government.

Mr Swinney is expected to say: “During this campaign, the SNP is the only party setting out a serious programme for government.

“Every other party has spent the campaign talking about themselves, about each other and talking about the SNP. I am asking you to vote for a SNP government to get things done.

“The SNP want to lower your bills. Other parties want to stop us. The SNP want to open GP walk-in clinics across Scotland. Other parties want to stop us ,The SNP want you to decide on your future. The other parties want to stop us. “