How Andy Burnham's broken Brexit pledge risks making him the new Keir Starmer – Brian Monteith

Yet the strife-torn collapse of public services at the end of the decade, following years of trade union militancy told a different story.

Being able to communicate better and Northern vibes for barm cakes and ale do not necessarily mean his analysis of what ails Britain is correct – nor does it give him a clearer insight into the solutions required. For instance, completely absent has been any recognition of what Labour got wrong under Starmer.

READ MORE: Why scrapping Labour's EU 'reset' would save billions that could be spent on defence instead

Burnham’s bogeymen

It is as if the ever higher taxes and public borrowing of Labour’s budgets never happened. Rather than reverse the failures that caused him to be parachuted into power by Labour MPs in the first place, he’s chosen to point to bogeymen such as Thatcher and Brexit which he expects will resonate with potential Labour voters.

On the contrary, Starmer was the author of his own downfall. He inherited an economy that, although fragile after the shocks caused by the Covid lockdowns and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, had lower inflation, lower unemployment, higher growth and less debt than now. Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves put Britain in harm’s way by failing to control spending, raising taxes from the get-go and pushing the national debt to within touching distance of £3 trillion.

Burnham is no Starmer, however. Gone is his predecessor’s technocratic managerialism, based upon subservience to international law, that enable him to be pushed around by the EU, the European Court of Human Rights, the UN, or countries like Mauritius. Burnham at least has an idealistic goal informed by a vision of changing the NHS that provides him with a compassionate pitch.

READ MORE: Why Andy Burnham needs to start playing hardball with Brussels if he wants to remain PM

Yet for all his conference speech was undoubtedly heartfelt and sincere, it was also a political tease. Burnham’s focus was on what could come after a general election rather than what we can expect between now and that contest. It was as if he was laying down the groundworks for a spring election, most likely at the time of the May council elections.

Contributing to Starmer’s downfall was the reputation he created for himself of going back on his word, being untrustworthy, saying one thing, then doing another. He became known as “Two-Tier Keir” for treating different groups by different standards and changing his mind from one week to the next.

READ MORE: Drill, Burnham, drill, or you will go the same way as Starmer

A Brexit change of heart

Burnham has to avoid that reputation at all costs, yet he is repeating Starmer’s mistake. While Greater Manchester mayor, he would talk of how rejoining the EU remained a goal, but when he needed to win the Makerfield by-election to get back into Westminster he said to the voters: “I am not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU.”

All the more puzzling then that he should raise the possibility of taking the UK back into the EU. Only two months later, he’s saying, “I would like to see Britain rejoin in my lifetime” and is considering how he can achieve this.

There was no more divisive an issue across the UK in the last ten years, and many of Labour’s policies since then have depended on Britain being outside the European Union (such as animal welfare improvements). By returning to that issue, Burnham will open up divisions in his own party (with two Cabinet members already signalling their concern) and set back the NHS reforms he wants as his legacy.

Wolfgang Münchau, the prominent German economic commentator who specialises in EU developments, sees real problems for the UK, saying to Burnham: “Don’t worry about ‘Bregret’ or Labour party politics. Look instead at the state of the EU, which has changed dramatically since 2016. Right now, the EU is not a club you’d want to join. In fact, the sensible Icelanders recently voted against pursuing EU membership.”

Münchau makes a serious point. The EU budget is expanding hugely, meaning membership will cost far more than when we left, with £35 billion a year being a realistic figure, compared with £16bn in the past. Those who support rejoining will have to face up to the fact that the terms we had before will simply not be available.

EU attitudes towards UK return

Polling shows that, across Europe, British membership is not the popular cause Europhiles here think it will be, with EU citizens believing we should accept all the rules on the currency and open borders that they have but we reject. Then there’s the ability of members to refuse to agree to UK accession without meeting specific demands, such as the Irish government wanting a border poll, Spain wanting Gibraltar, Cyprus wanting our RAF bases out, and Greece wanting the Elgin Marbles.

The biggest obstacle for Burnham must be he cannot simply swan into the EU without a referendum. Winning a general election will not be good enough. The 2016 referendum had a turnout of 72.2 per cent involving 33.5 million voters compared to the 2024 general election achieving only a 59.7 per cent turnout of 28.8 million voters. The elections of 2017 and 2019 were also below the referendum totals.

If Burnham wants to deliver the change he desires for social care, he should relegate his EU ambitions to no more than improving relations, while recognising Starmer’s reset will cost too much for too little in return. By not breaking his promises, he will not be a new Keir Starmer – and that’s improvement enough.

Brian Monteith is a former member of the Scottish and European Parliaments and editor of ThinkScotland.org