Why Andy Burnham needs to start playing hardball with Brussels if he wants to remain PM – Brian Monteith
There is a way that Andy Burnham can keep his honeymoon period bouncing until an early election, says Brian Monteith
To the surprise of absolutely no one, the first polls since Andrew Burnham was installed as Prime Minister are showing a modest bounce that has taken Labour above Reform UK who continue to keep the Tories in third place. The average of recent opinion polls puts Labour on 25 per cent, Reform UK on 24 per cent and the Conservatives on 20 per cent.
Just as important, in a real election, the one held to replace Burnham as Mayor of Greater Manchester, Labour triumphed with 47.1 per cent of first preferences to Reform’s 21 per cent. There was, however, a warning for Labour that the turnout was only 25 per cent and Reform increased its votes on the transfer of second preferences by some 43 per cent while Labour’s went up by only 23 per cent, although it was enough to get its candidate over the line.
Interestingly the Conservatives bombed, with only 7.7 per cent – coming behind not just the Greens but also Restore Britain. If anyone has any doubts what it means, let me just reiterate the Conservatives’ prospects of winning a general election are finished. The party is a shadow of its former self – little more than regional rumps with a parliamentary party well to the left of its leader, Kemi Badenoch.
It will take a long time for the Conservatives to be forgiven for their 14 wasted years in power when, among a very long charge sheet, they froze the income tax thresholds, introduced the oil and gas windfall tax, and accelerated net zero without a vote in parliament. That the opposition parties all cheered those policies on and wanted them sooner, harder and for longer does not matter – the Conservatives sold out their supporters, many of whom have cancelled their subscriptions and now vote for other parties.
Burnham’s ‘good vibes’ approach wearing thin
The developing consensus around the Prime Minister’s future is that the bounce could be short-lived. After all, it's nearly three months until the first Budget on October 28 – that’s enough time for a handful of football managers to already be sacked.
As Halloween approaches, Burnham may be desperate to try and placate growing disenchantment that his good vibes approach is being seen as vacuous and performative. If the Budget goes badly – and there is no money so taxes will have to go up and the debt burden will have to grow – the bounce is likely to be just a fond memory.
What then can be done? I have a counter-intuitive view on this – Labour politicians may not like it, but the Prime Minister should play hardball and cancel the EU reset. It’s not needed, wasn’t in the manifesto, and Britain will be the loser to the substantial benefit of EU exporters.
If that’s too robust, he could still wind back on the worst aspects of Starmer’s reset and position himself as the defender of British interests against the unloved and grasping EU officials who are only interested in UK taxpayers' money.
By showing he is not the EU's patsy, he can keep the bounce going and get enough traction in those Red Wall seats that Reform look set to take when an election is eventually called.
It’s not as if there is a shortage of issues to rein back on. He could pick just three or four and still have a handful of concessions the EU is desperate to win – and charge us handsomely for, into the bargain.
Passing the ‘Makerfield test’
For instance, allowing large numbers of EU under-35s to come to work in the UK when youth unemployment is climbing is simply daft and fails Burnham’s own Makerfield test of asking “does it makes the lives of people in my constituency better?” Given that, in most EU states, youth unemployment is even higher and their minimum wages are lower (the UK’s is the fourth highest in the world) expect tens of thousands of EU youths to arrive.
Given British second language skills are generally far poorer, how many of our kids are going to take up reciprocal rights when there is more opportunity and higher pay here?
Then there are the animal welfare issues where Starmer’s government decided to align with far lower EU standards and abandon the proposed bans on foie gras and other improved practices. Being a better communicator than Starmer is not enough but, by showing he is willing to ditch outdated luxury beliefs that played well in the Whitehall bubble, Burnham can begin to win back generations of people who are going over to the Greens and Reform.
I don't see it happening, however – indeed all the talk is of Labour having a commitment to rejoin the EU in the next Labour manifesto, but that would be a poison pill. For, as the polls show consistently, while many voters are attracted to the idea of greater harmony with the EU they recoil when asked about the detail of membership.
A policy that is visibly more chauvinistic towards the EU bureaucrats will play better with the home media. A policy that keeps more legislative decisions in the hands of Labour MPs can be sold as making them far more relevant and in control. A policy that makes the business case for buying British for public sector and defence contracts will help secure industries and retain jobs.
Burnham can mix a firmer approach to the EU with other socialist policies to keep backbenchers on side, but he has to lead, not follow, and tell them he is their last chance or they will be out on their ears come a general election, whenever it is.
Brian Monteith is a former member of the Scottish and European parliaments and member of the Britain Unbound Advisory Council
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