How Trump is driving historic shift in US politics – by persuading white women to vote Democrat

Now, just over a century after that historic event and with less than two weeks until the US presidential election, a once-unimaginable dream could come true if America votes for the first black woman, Kamala Harris, to become president. It would represent a victory by women, who now form the largest demographic group in US elections, both registering to vote and actually voting in greater numbers than men.

But of more significance is the possibility ‘white women’ as a group will lean towards a Democrat in the November 5 election. In all but two elections over the past 70 years, the Republicans have been able to rely on majorities in this demographic.

Worst result this century

While Democrats Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden won more women’s votes than their Republican rivals, they were not backed by most white women. Republican candidates Mitt Romney, in 2012, and Donald Trump, in both 2016 and 2020, had significant majorities of nine, six and seven per cent respectively in this cohort of voters.

In the seven battleground states where next month’s election is too close to call, shifting this single majority, even by a few percentage points, could decide the outcome.

The US is a pollsters’ paradise and individual polls have to be seen through a sceptical and indeed cynical lens, but there is increasing evidence that the political preferences of white women, who make up 36 per cent of all US voters, are changing and that this may impact the outcome of the 2024 election.

Research by pollster and political analyst Harry Enten, for Newsweek and CNN, suggests that Trump may now be only one per cent ahead of Harris among this group, a potential result which Enten said would be “the worst, if this holds, for a GOP [Republican] candidate this century among white women”.

White women backed Trump over Biden

Looking at the wider picture, the Pew Research Centre published a study called Behind Biden’s 2020 victory, which dramatically illustrated the importance of white women in the presidential election that year.

Overall the Democrats maintained an 11-point lead among all women, with Biden securing 55 per cent of women voters against Trump’s 44 per cent. Biden won a staggering 95 per cent of black women voters against Trump’s 5 per cent and 61 per cent of Latino women voters to Trump’s 37 per cent. However, Biden only won 46 per cent of white women’s votes with 53 per cent backing Trump. Given they are the largest voting demographic in the country, this could have been critically important to the outcome.

In the UK and in other civilised countries, it is remarkable to think that Trump’s behaviour – his excessive narcissism, misogyny, sexual remarks about women, and a court ruling that he sexually abused and defamed the writer E Jean Carroll – attracts such support from women. Not in America, where a toxic, disrespectful and hate-filled atmosphere has gripped politics.

‘You’re the worst vice-president’

However, the tide may be turning against Trump because of his excesses, although there has certainly been no letting up of the tireless, personal and vicious abuse that he hurls at Harris. Speaking at a rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, Trump said of Harris: “We can’t stand you. You’re a s**t vice-president. The worst. You’re the worst vice-president, Kamala. You’re fired. Get the hell out of here.”

American historian Heather Cox Richardson noted in her newsletter of 0ctober 20 that “as Trump’s remarks got weirder, the Fox News channel cut away and instead showed Harris being cheered at a packed rally in Georgia”, remarking on the “increasingly obvious mental incapacity of the Republican candidate for president”.

But it was probably Trump’s pick for vice-president, JD Vance, saying “we are effectively run in this country by a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable in their own lives” that made a real impact on white women, with Taylor Swift, who has cats but no children, criticising his “disparaging of women without children”. Trump reacted by posting on social media: “I hate Taylor Swift!”

Reproductive rights a major issue

While the Republican campaign is characterised by hate, there are serious issues facing women in America. The US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the landmark Roe v Wade ruling on abortion rights, a move that allowed states to make their own rules on the issue, has created widespread anger and outrage across party lines about reproductive rights which shows no signs of easing.

In 13 states, abortion has been banned at all stages of pregnancy and in four more it has been banned after six weeks, before many women even know they are pregnant. This alienation of particularly white women voters is hurting the Republican party. Trump has only made matters much worse by offering ridiculous answers to questions on the subject.

Understandably, Harris has made reproductive rights central to her campaign. Americans remain broadly opposed to the Supreme Court’s decision.

‘No longer thinking about abortion’

But it is perhaps better to allow Trump himself to explain his vision for women.

At a recent rally, he said they should vote for him “because I am your protector”. “As president, I have to be your protector. I hope you don’t make too much of it. I hope the fake news doesn’t go, ‘Oh, he wants to be their protector.’ Well, I am. As president, I have to be your protector,” Trump said. “Women will be happy, healthy, confident and free. You will no longer be thinking about abortion.”

Well, that couldn’t be any clearer; he has such a way with words!

Henry McLeish is a visiting professor at the University of South Florida and a former First Minister of Scotland