Why UK needs to realise America is an unreliable ally and the 'special relationship' is over

This year is different. Who controls the White House and Capitol Hill will have a major impact on the content, direction and financing of future US foreign policy. This election result will affect the world, and could have serious implications for Nato, the European Union and global trade, especially with China.

A Kamala Harris victory would see continuity. But a second term for Donald Trump could wreak havoc within Nato, in terms of funding of the alliance itself and for Ukraine amid the potential for further Russian threats to the Nordic and Baltic states.

Trump wants Ukraine’s surrender

Military support for Ukraine, as it defends itself against the Russian invasion, has divided Congress. Major schisms now exist between the Democratic and Republican parties. Harris is strongly supportive of Ukraine, as is Joe Biden, and her administration would continue to support President Volodymyr Zelensky, if she wins.

Ukraine can only hold out with US support; other Nato allies could not fill that gap. A Trump win promises an instant deal with his friend and mentor Putin – it’s called surrender!

The Israel-Hamas war and the wider conflagration now developing in the Middle East have resulted in significant student and Palestinian protests in the US, similar to the UK but on a much larger scale. This may impact tight races in Pennsylvania and Michigan. There is a weariness amongst the US and the UK public for the end of the war with the release of the remaining hostages.

Middle East powder keg

For Democrats, there is anger at Biden’s failure to effectively restrain Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s brutal, self-interested behaviour. Despite Israel’s dependence on American weapons, especially missile defence systems, and US votes within the UN Security Council, Netanyahu and the fanatical right-wing theocracy that his party has formed a coalition with remain out of control, acting with impunity and seeking to destroy any possibility of a Palestinian state.

One suspects that the complexities of the Middle East – as a powder keg of hate, history, poverty, religion, oil, terror, intolerance and inequalities – are being used by other countries in order to defend the indefensible. Overall, the Democrats and Republicans support Israel in the destruction of Hamas. While there are voices of dissent in Congress, there seems little prospect of a breakdown in this largely unconditional bipartisan support for Israel.

For the UK, this would seem an appropriate moment to question whether, in the modern era, there remains any “special relationship” with America. Our exceptionalism, nostalgia and delusions constantly distort reality. We need a rethink of Britain’s role in the world and much closer ties with the European Union.

UK’s future lies with Europe

After the November 5 election, the US could become an unreliable, unstable ally if Trump wins. Too often the UK has provided cover and credibility to US foreign policy, but even accepting the complex web of internationalism, interdependencies and nuances that we are supposed to deploy when talking about matters of foreign policy, a stronger EU must be our aim. This is where our future lies.

Biden’s love of Ireland, his ancestral home, and his irritation with the UK was always on display, especially in the post-Brexit period when he was critical of Boris Johnson’s handling of trade arrangements and the possibility they might undermine the Good Friday peace agreement.

More significantly and despite desperate pleas from successive UK Conservative governments, Biden and also Trump both made clear there would be no special post-Brexit trade deal, now or in the future. This unfolding reality should help the UK regain some sense of national identity and global credibility by moving closer to the EU and abandoning the idea that the special relationship remains.

Churchill’s ‘fraternal association’

Of course, the two countries’ long history – from arrival of the boat people of their time, the Pilgrims, in 1620 – shared language and shared commitment to capitalism, finance and free markets will always ensure a strong relationship between them.

A special relationship, however, should mean more than this in today’s turbulent world. Sitting on our doorstep is Europe, a much more meaningful long-term, strategic trade and security partner, which can help realise the real potential of this country. The EU is widely regarded as the most successful institutional achievement in the post war-world – and yet the UK walked away.

Sir Winston Churchill first used the term “special relationship” in Fulton, Missouri in 1946, in what has come to be known as the “Iron Curtain” speech, when he talked about, “a fraternal association of the English-speaking peoples”. He meant a “special relationship” between the British Commonwealth and Empire and the United States. Appropriate then, but now?

A ‘played out’ role

President Barack Obama, when asked about the special relationship with the UK nearly 70 years later, hit a more realistic note when he said that the United States had “many” special relationships. The US had moved on, but the UK remained stuck in the past.

Speaking at West Point in November 1962, the then US Secretary of State Dean Acheson said: “Great Britain has lost an Empire and has not yet found a role... the attempt to play a separate power role – that is, a role apart from Europe, a role based on a ‘special relationship’ with the United States, a role based on being head of a ‘Commonwealth’, which has no political structure, or unity, or strength – this role is played out”.

No matter who wins on November 5, America is becoming a different and divided country, unstable and unreliable, more self-interested, protectionist, narrower in its global perspectives and struggling with democracy. This is a good time for the UK to rethink and move on.

Henry McLeish is a visiting professor at the University of South Florida and a former First Minister of Scotland