Don’t listen to arch-Brexiteers. Here’s why UK needs 'special relationship' with EU

I was around to observe it in 2000 when George W Bush unexpectedly defeated Al Gore. Neither personalities nor ideologies mattered. Every cog was geared to getting alongside the incoming administration to embed the “special relationship”. From that point, for better or worse, there was no turning back.

The same intensive effort will be going on now but in a very different and less favourable environment. The most skilled British diplomat may have difficulty identifying a friendly face in Washington, even among Republicans, who is sure to be around after January 20.

Vaccine denier, Fox News presenter

Amidst the freak show which Trump is assembling, there is no obvious point of rational, pro-Atlanticist contact. The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, will be more interested in fomenting Latin American coups and winding up China than in building bridges with Europe.

The head of intelligence has a pro-Putin history on Ukraine. The Defence Secretary is a Fox News presenter. The Health Secretary is a vaccine denier… Where would a British diplomat begin? How realistic is the potential for exerting influence over anything?

Of course, it may all settle down. There are precedents for being over-apocalyptic when it comes to US Presidents. Ronald Reagan was supposed to be a threat to civilisation but ended up as a folksy old gentleman. Trump first time round was a loose cannon but was largely kept under control. Maybe the crazies will again be sidelined once they are in office.

Estranged from EU and US?

Somewhere deep in Trump’s own German-Scottish roots there may be a modicum of European empathy. But then again, maybe not. So hope for the best and prepare for the worst. And anyway, to what extent are we prepared to be beholden to the vagaries of these outcomes?

The obvious immediate questions relate to foreign policy. If Trump pays his debts to Putin by ditching Ukraine, do we follow? If Trump awards Netanyahu even greater licence to do as he likes, do we keep churning out weapons to oblige? And if the Starmer government draws lines, as it should, will Trump hit back in other policy areas, notably trade?

Other European countries face the same uncertainties though to varying degrees. The “special relationship” is a very British prize, rather than a European one. And, of course, the other leading west European countries are part of a bloc from which the UK has excluded itself. Being outside the EU while increasingly estranged from the US could become a lonely place in the world.

The diplomatic effort, naturally, will aim to maintain both relationships, edging closer to the Europe and clinging to influence in Washington. The problem is that the latter may not be within the gift of Starmer’s government, unless at an unacceptably high price – doubtless approved by Nigel Farage.

Brexit damaging investment and growth

Though Trump’s name was never mentioned in the Mansion House speech by the governor of the Bank of England, his election forms part of the essential backdrop to Andrew Bailey’s core message – that the UK must work harder and faster at getting closer to the EU. It was welcome that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, sang from the same hymn-sheet.

The governor was speaking from an economic perspective. "As a public official,” he said delicately, “I take no position on Brexit per se. But I do have to point out consequences." Being outside the EU is damaging trade in goods, deterring investment and hampering growth, he argued. The more barriers can be chipped away at, the less serious these impacts will become. A lot of that work has been going on since the general election; we just need more of it, faster.

Low-hanging fruit

Talk of rejoining the EU or single market is completely unrealistic and a distraction from what is attainable. Talks have begun with a view to removing trade barriers on food. Mutual recognition of professional qualifications is back on the agenda. There are lots of incremental things, like youth mobility across Europe, which could be low-hanging fruit.

It will not be one-way traffic. There are aspects of the post-Brexit treaty with the EU that have not yet been fulfilled, including the status of its citizens in the UK. And while the change in mood music will certainly have been welcome in Brussels, there are plenty in that city who will remember that we left them – not the other way round.

At home, the absolute certainty is that anything perceived to be a reversal of Brexit will be met with a cacophony of indignation from predictable sources. That argument cannot be won by stealth and Labour ministers have to be upfront about why a realignment is more necessary than ever, in the context of an evolving world order.

Most think Brexit a mistake

It will be fairly pointed out that the EU itself is not in great economic shape with the German economy in recession. But that has to be considered within the bigger picture of European unity, security and preparedness for the distinct possibility of American priorities and loyalties moving elsewhere.

The most recent poll suggested that those who think Brexit was a mistake now outnumber its supporters by 55 per cent to 31 with the remainder unsure. There is no need to reignite that fundamental debate, since another referendum isn’t going to happen, but Keir Starmer’s government should be emboldened by the knowledge that there are far more in favour of closer EU links than are fundamentally opposed.

This time, placing all our bets on that fabled British diplomatic machine achieving its goals in Washington would be a big mistake. For a host of reasons, we need a special relationship with our allies in Europe.