As fiscal black hole looms, a 'giveaway' Scottish Budget would be a scandal

The truth, however, is that all is not well and hard choices will need to be made in the not-too-distant future, with a growing fiscal black hole that will require multi-billion-pound decisions about taxation and spending.

Scottish Labour, which has decided not to oppose the Budget whatever it says, plans to introduce emergency changes in the unlikely event it forms the next government after May’s Holyrood election. If the SNP government is returned, it would surely be embarrassing in the extreme if it was forced to do the same.

READ MORE: Economists warn SNP 'something will have to give' as capital projects set for axe over £1bn gap

Early unpopularity may prompt rebellion

An early sign that Keir Starmer’s government was in trouble was the row over their decision to increase employers’ National Insurance in the 2024 Budget, which many felt was a breach of their manifesto promises.

If the SNP’s Budget on Tuesday turns out to be little more than pre-election spin that the next Finance Secretary – Robison is standing down – is forced to unpick, John Swinney may find that talk of a leadership challenge ramps up quickly. As Labour is discovering, early unpopularity can make a five-year term of government seem like a very long time and promote a spirit of rebellion within the party.

Robison should consider her political legacy – and not just how well she sets up the SNP for the election. A ‘giveaway’ budget would be a scandal that would be rightly condemned by financial experts and would come with its own political price. The country has also surely had enough of populist stunts like council tax ‘freezes’ – paid for with public money.

Grow the economy

The Budget is expected to focus on helping the ailing NHS and easing the cost of living, and few would disagree with either aim. However, Robison should also seek to take steps that will benefit the long-term health of the Scottish Government’s finances, grow the economy, and help struggling sectors like retail and hospitality.

Ultimately, Scotland’s economic fortunes depend on private sector businesses. If they thrive, so does the country. If they struggle, we all feel the pinch.

This may be an election budget but it must be a sensible one. Voters are not fools – something that politicians who act like they are may discover to their cost.