As Conservatives flock to Reform, Nigel Farage's party must take care not to become too blue

Yet the tectonic plates are shifting. It will only be after the May elections that those still clinging on to the warm familiarity of their favoured mainstream party will find out if the future of politics has left them behind. I rather think the interchangeable centrist comfort blankets will end up being viewed more as sodden wet blankets.

Do not believe everything that media spokesmen of political parties say, especially when reported by those organs of the media who are most receptive to one party or another. Parties all compete to push their own particular narrative so it becomes dominant and eventually the received wisdom.

Examples of this are that Kemi Badenoch is doing exceptionally well as Tory leader; particularly in landing blows against Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer at the despatch box – or in announcing new popular policies such as abolishing Stamp Duty – or in being decisive in pushing Jenrick off her bus before he jumped. The reality is somewhat different.

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More trustworthy than Osborne?

The claim of abolishing Stamp Duty did not last more than a few hours before it was revealed it would continue for landlords, second homes – and on equities, where it is particularly damaging to the economy. So not abolition, but piecemeal reform.

The Conservatives talked up the prospect of abolishing inheritance tax for most people back in 2007 and again in 2015 – but instead froze the threshold so more people paid it. Can Badenoch be trusted any more than George Osborne?

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As for being decisive, what was the alternative? Letting her arch-competitor have all the time in the world to decide whether he should defect before or after the May elections, with Jenrick continuing to pump out videos that made Badenoch look lazy – or seal her own fate by failing to grasp the opportunity presented to her? Such ‘decisiveness’ is the least a party should expect from its leaders.

Most leaders have particular strengths they want to promote, balanced against weaknesses they are desperate to play down. In a pugilist political age, Badenoch’s undoubted strength is she likes to take opponents on, clearly revelling in scripted playground scraps.

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Bold and ballsy not enough

Her Budget takedown of Reeves was so brutal it could only have been delivered by a woman or it would have attracted accusations of misogyny. Her chant-along eviscerations of Starmer at Prime Minister’s Question Time open the PM up for ridicule as he deploys lame jokes that nobody finds funny.

But being bold and ballsy is not enough, above all leaders must have good judgment and reveal a healthy helping of humility. These are not Badenoch’s strengths, for she is apt to make miscalls and lord it over people.

It was rather rich for her to make out she is sick and tired of internal party plotting when she herself was part of a coordinated attack on Boris Johnson’s premiership so he would be forced to step down. Badenoch signed a joint letter of resignation and then encouraged other ministers to resign by WhatsApp. Loyalty? Hardly. Duplicitous? More likely.

As for judgment, well there is a trail of poor calls from Conservative ministers like Badenoch that placed her party far closer to Old Labour than she would care to remember.

Tories did much to break Britain

The Conservatives know they cannot attack Starmer’s party for breaking Britain because so much that’s wrong on taxes, immigration, and over-regulation was actually started by the Tories – including Badenoch as a minister.

It was Badenoch as the Treasury Exchequer Secretary who broke British hospitality by zealously halting tax-free shopping in January 2021. Her “tourist tax” went against the advice of many ministerial colleagues and MPs, airports, luxury retailers such as Harrods and Selfridges, and hoteliers like Sir Rocco Forte. It is estimated the lost revenue amounted to nearly £11 billion annually as wealthy tourists switched to Paris and Milan for their exclusive gifts.

Badenoch’s decision when Business Secretary to scale back on the removal of EU regulations that were no longer needed played straight into the hands of Brussels’ hopes to stop our businesses becoming more competitive by diversifying away from the EU’s regulatory orbit.

It’s no surprise then that the Conservative party, which this time last week was very happy to have Jenrick, now makes out he’s only out for himself. Yet he alone chose to resign from Rishi Sunak’s government when it would not take a more robust approach over the small boats crises, which he called a “national emergency”.

Labour caught in pincer movement

The defection of Jenrick and now Andrew Rosindell, points to dangers for both Reform and the Conservatives. For Reform, it is that it takes on too many Conservatives when it needs some balance from other parties so its narrative that it’s not about being left or right but about being right not wrong has traction.

For the Conservatives, it is that, by losing those who backed Jenrick in the past, Badenoch’s Tories will become even more centrist, moving even closer to Labour, to the benefit of Reform.

Labour is facing its own existential pincer movement as polling and by-elections show voters peeling off to Reform UK on the one hand, while even more supporters are migrating to a combination of the Greens, Your Party and independents.

This trend will also be seen in May’s elections, but for now all eyes are on the direction Badenoch takes, and if she plays into Reform’s hands.

Brian Monteith is a former member of the Scottish and European parliaments and editor of ThinkScotland.org