Disaffection caused by economic insecurity poses threat to political status quo

Disaffection has emerged in recent years as a major concern in British politics, with a sense of disconnection felt among large numbers of voters linked by many observers with the disruption of the duopoly shared by Labour and the Conservatives at Westminster.

Reform UK has now been topping the polls so consistently and for so long that it is easy to lose sight of how extraordinary this is, with the Tories and Labour having taken turns in power for the past century.

A similar pattern of populists upending the political status quo can be seen in countries across Europe, where voters are sending the more established parties the clear message they feel they no longer represent their views.

In Scotland, the SNP’s dominance seems set to continue, with the party projected to win convincingly in the Scottish Parliament election despite having been in power at Holyrood since 2007.

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In fact, polling experts such as Professor Sir John Curtice point out that the rise of Reform, far from damaging the nationalists, has so far only been to their benefit, with Nigel Farage’s party making the anti-independence vote even more split than it already was.

SNP leader John Swinney is aiming to repeat the 2011 achievement of his predecessor Alex Salmond by winning an outright majority next May, thereby claiming a mandate for a second independence referendum.

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But he should beware of taking a convincing victory for granted. The JRF survey found that, of those feeling both economically insecure and politically disaffeced, 16 per cent had not decided who they were going to vote for when they go to the polls in a few months’ time.

If the sense of economic insecurity continues to grow, political disaffection could start to have an impact on the SNP’s vote share too.